Strategy Memo: Framing November
Good Wednesday morning is over. It only took five months of electoral contests to get a presumptive Democratic nominee, and just seventeen months from when the race actually began to narrow the field to two. No time at all, right? Here's what Washington is watching today, aside from airfare to tropical destinations:
-- The House takes up measures supporting the use of nanotechnologies, a bill to make high schools greener and othermeasures that are expected to be less controversial today, including one measure to allow the Greater Washington Soap Box Derby to use the Capitol grounds (Pardon the editorializing: Awesome.). The Senate will vote on the budget resolution today before voting on further amendments to the climate change bill. President Bush meets Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at the White House today before hosting a picnic for members of Congress on the South Lawn.
-- For the first time in American history, someone who is not white captured a major party nomination, and last night Barack Obama didn't make it close. After picking up enough super delegates to put him within four of the magic number before the first polls closed, Obama won enough support in South Dakota, where he lost to Hillary Clinton by a 56%-44% margin, and in Montana, where he won 57%-40%, to declare victory. Of course, the 26.5 super delegates who endorsed immediately after polls closed helped as well. As of this morning, Obama has support from 2,165 delegates, per the latest RCP Democratic Delegate Count, north of the 2,118 he needed to clinch the nomination.
-- In two of their better speeches of the primary season, Obama and John McCain acknowledged and offered praise for each other as a worthy general election opponent. Both speeches laid out, in stark terms, the way each campaign sees the race. For Obama, the march toward November will be about the economy and defense, both of country and of himself. For McCain, the path to a win comes from convincing Americans that he is the right candidate to handle the war in Iraq and America's safety as a whole. For both, the enduring mantra will be change, and trustworthy change at that.
-- Obama begins his run with a clear mission: Make John McCain equal President Bush. "While John McCain can legitimately tout moments of independence from his party in the past, such independence has not been the hallmark of his presidential campaign. It's not change when John McCain decided to stand with George Bush ninety-five percent of the time, as he did in the Senate last year," Obama said last night. That battle started months ago, and it's a drum the Democratic National Committee beats every day. If Obama can be successful, it will mean taking one of the best-known politicians in America and completely turning his image on its head. It will be a difficult task, but the prospect of turning a popular McCain into the equivalent of a guy with 28% approval ratings is the easiest path to take.
-- Obama also spent time framing his opponent as a partisan attacker, and painting himself as the attacked, but respectful, foe. "I honor [McCain's] service, and I respect his many accomplishments, even if he chooses to deny mine. My differences with him are not personal; they are with the policies he has proposed in this campaign," Obama said. And, later: "The other side will come here in September and offer a very different set of policies and positions, and that is a debate I look forward to. It is a debate the American people deserve. But what you don't deserve is another election that's governed by fear, and innuendo, and division. What you won't hear from this campaign or this party is the kind of politics that uses religion as a wedge, and patriotism as a bludgeon -- that sees our opponents not as competitors to challenge, but enemies to demonize." Stirring words, and a platform from which Obama can claim virtually any moral high ground. In a race between two self-proclaimed champions of ethics reform, the high ground is crucial.
-- McCain, on the other hand, is borrowing lines straight out of Obama's playbook and framing them as his own. "This is, indeed, a change election. No matter who wins this election, the direction of this country is going to change dramatically. But, the choice is between the right change and the wrong change; between going forward and going backward," he said last night, claiming the mantle of right change and American optimism. "America has seen tough times before. We've always known how to get through them. And we've always believed our best days are ahead of us. I believe that still. But we must rise to the occasion, as we always have; change what must be changed; and make the future better than the past." It's a tough argument for a septuagenarian to make, that he represents change, but really, does McCain have any other choice?
-- McCain employed a sort of reverse-Karl Rove method. Rove's goal was to turn an opponent's strength into a weakness. McCain, last night, sought to turn the issue of his age into a strength. There are benefits and pitfalls awaiting him as he does so: The "experience versus change" message didn't work in a primary for Hillary Clinton, but the electorate in the general is fundamentally different, and so, by the way, is the candidate who claims experience (McCain manager Rick Davis' response when Politics Nation pointed that out to him: "John McCain is not Hillary Clinton").
-- "I have a few years on my opponent, so I am surprised that a young man has bought in to so many failed ideas. Like others before him, he seems to think government is the answer to every problem; that government should take our resources and make our decisions for us. That type of change doesn't trust Americans to know what is right or what is in their own best interests," McCain said in his speech last night. His constant mantra, one that sounds surprisingly like a certain former Massachusetts Governor and will certainly work its way into every talking point from now until November: "That's not change we can believe in."
-- Granted, there is another candidate in the race, at least as of this moment. Clinton, who said yesterday she would consider a position as Obama's running mate, spoke with the presumptive nominee just after midnight last night, and she's long said she will do what it takes to get him elected in November. While advisers agree the nomination fight is all but finished, Clinton still wants to sit down with Obama, and though no meeting has reportedly been scheduled, both candidates will be in Washington today. Her role going forward, Adam Nagourney writes, is the only thing left to figure out. Oh, and another reason she won't drop out today: It's her mother's birthday, and Mrs. Rodham certainly doesn't want that for an 89th birthday gift.
-- Sign Of The Day: Florida Governor Charlie Crist is certainly expanding his appeal. Anyone who flipped on the middle of the Florida Marlins-Atlanta Braves game last night would have caught a glimpse of the tanned, ready and rested pol chatting with announcers in the box, along with Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue. The kicker: Crist and Perdue were in the Braves' box. Sure, there are a lot of Braves fans in Jacksonville, Florida, but when the announcers started ribbing Crist about a slot on the GOP ticket, the truth came out. Watch for Clinton to show up in announcers' booths forthwith.
-- Today On The Trail: Barack Obama is speaking to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee at press time, a speech that continues Obama's concerted effort to appeal to Jewish voters, a constituency he will need come November. Later this morning, Obama will speak to the annual SEIU conference in San Juan, Puerto Rico, by satellite. John McCain is still in Baton Rouge, where he will hold a town hall meeting and media availability in Baton Rouge before attending a luncheon fundraiser with incumbent Governor Bobby Jindal (Veep alert!) and former Governor Buddy Roemer.



