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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Strategy Memo: Obama's The Boss | Blog Home Page | Rossi Files For Office »

Roberts Ahead, At 50

While Republicans have been buffeted in recent weeks by polls showing even some of their supposedly safest incumbents in serious electoral trouble, at least a few are still hoping for easy races this year. Seeking his third term in the Senate, Kansas Republican Pat Roberts looks in good shape to score another six years in office, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 for DailyKos from 6/2-4, surveyed 600 likely Kansas voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Roberts and former Rep. Jim Slattery, the likely Democratic nominee, were tested among a sample that consisted of 33% Democrats, 45% Republicans and 22% independents and others.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Roberts.....50 / 13 / 78 / 47 / 56 / 44
Slattery......38 / 74 / 10 / 42 / 34 / 42

Both candidates are seen largely favorably by Kansas voters. Robers enjoys a 56% favorable rating, while 40% see him unfavorably, and Slattery is viewed positively by 48%, while 37% have an unfavorable opinion -- in all, a surprising 85% who have an opinion of a candidate who had not sought election since 1994, when he lost a race for governor of Kansas.

Slattery's effort is decidedly uphill, even in what is expected to be a good Democratic year. 49% of respondents said they would vote to re-elect Roberts, while 24% said they would at least consider another candidate. Only 18% said they planned to vote to replace their incumbent. A member of Congress before coming to the Senate, Roberts won his initial election in 1996 with 62%, then cruised to re-election in 2002 with 83% of the vote.