Former Rep. Anne Northup, a Republican caught in the 2006 Democratic wave, is trailing in a poll conducted for her own campaign, though the survey shows incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth is not completely safe for re-election. The Republican is seen as her party's best chance to take back the Louisville-based seat, though she remains the underdog to her well-financed rival.

The survey, taken for Northup's campaign by Voter/Consumer Research, polled 400 respondents between 6/4-5 and 6/8, for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Northup and Yarmuth were tested.

General Election Matchup
Yarmuth........51
Northup.........43

It is somewhat unorthodox to release a poll showing one's opponent ahead of 50%, but the Northup campaign did so after a SurveyUSA poll showed a 17-point margin in Yarmuth's favor. Pollster Jan van Lohuizen wrote that the survey was flawed, and that the margins were too large to be believed.

Northup had represented the Third District for five terms, often winning narrow re-election bids in a Democratic-leaning district because of her strong campaigning skills. But 2006 proved too difficult, and Yarmuth took a narrow 6,000-vote majority in the district, which encompasses almost all of Jefferson County.