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« GOP Hopes Up In IA, CA | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Speed Of Sound »

Lautenberg, Andrews Face Off

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In perhaps the most closely-watched primary to be held tomorrow, Garden State Democrats will head to the polls to select a Senate nominee. What was supposed to be an easy re-election campaign for incumbent Senator Frank Lautenberg became a lot more competitive two months ago when Democratic Rep. Rob Andrews threw his hat into the ring.

Both candidates have raised millions in the run-up to election day; Lautenberg had pulled in nearly $5.7 million by May 14, the pre-primary filing deadline, while Andrews had just north of $3 million raised. Lautenberg has outspent Andrews and has a lot more cash on hand, but Andrews actually outraised the incumbent between April 1 and mid-May.

To take a look at Lautenberg's press releases, one would assume the incumbent is running far behind. Aside from endorsement announcements, the senator takes near-daily shots at his rival. One Lautenberg consultant told Politics Nation that the race will be within ten points, and the most recent public poll out of the state shows the incumbent with just 35% support, compared with Andrews' paltry 20%.

Andrews has made age an issue; at 84 years old, polls have showed New Jersey voters are paying attention to Lautenberg's age. At their only televised debate, asked to say something nice about Lautenberg, Andrews thanked the senator for serving in World War II. Two prominent newspapers, the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Newark Star-Ledger, have endorsed Andrews, citing age as only one reason for backing the 50-year old Andrews.

The winner of the Democratic primary will likely face former Rep. Dick Zimmer in the Fall. Zimmer, who lost a Senate bid to Bob Torricelli in 1996, was the last of several prominent Republicans the NRSC approached about running for the seat after one potential hopeful, Anne Evans Estabrook, bowed out for health reasons and another, Andrew Unanue, imploded as he launched his campaign. State Senator Joe Pennacchio and college professor Murray Sabrin are also running for the GOP nod.

But Zimmer, should he win tomorrow, will be an underdog heading into November. No Republican Senate candidate has won election in New Jersey since 1972, when Clifford Case won his last re-election bid. New Jersey voters are notoriously reluctant to answer pollsters' questions, virtually guaranteeing that the race will look close come October, but Lautenberg or Andrews will likely keep the seat in Democratic hands.

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