In the party's best chance to take out a sitting Democratic Senator, Republicans can't be happy with a new survey taken for that endangered incumbent that shows her with backing from nearly half of Louisiana's voters. The poll, a month old, comes after other surveys taken on the Bayou show Senator Mary Landrieu in the fight of her political life.

The survey, taken 5/17-20 by the Mellman Group on Landrieu's behalf, polled 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Landrieu and State Treasurer John Kennedy, the likely Republican nominee, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Landrieu........49 (+1 from last, 12/07)
Kennedy........33 (-2)

The race is the first true test of Louisiana's post-Katrina political makeup. Though the state elected Governor Bobby Jindal, that can largely be seen as a reaction against Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco's poor handling of the hurricane's aftermath. Landrieu, who won praise for her work in Washington prodding the federal government to get things done, faces a more Republican state than she did in 2002 (when she barely won re-election), and she may win re-election only by the grace of a good Democratic year.

But the foundation for that win has been laid. The federal and state government got poor marks for their Katrina response, but Landrieu is hugely popular after the storm. 60% of Louisiana voters view her favorably, while just 28% see her unfavorably. Kennedy is known by far fewer Louisianans, but he, too, makes a largely favorable impression, by a 42%-12% margin.

Republicans, who face losses so severe that National Republican Senatorial Committee chair John Ensign is setting the bar at 41 seats to avoid a filibuster-proof Democratic majority, could push back with their own poll showing a much tighter race. Kennedy has raised a significant amount of money, and given the lack of top pickup opportunities on which to focus their attentions, national Republicans are likely to make an all-out push on Kennedy's behalf.