In three special elections this year, Democrats have knocked off Republicans in districts that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush. Could those be just the tip of the ice berg? Democrats hope so, and a new poll conducted for a political neophyte shows the party might just have a chance at bagging a sprawling Ohio district left open by the retirement of nine-term Rep. David Hobson.

The survey, conducted by the Democratic firm Cooper & Secrest on behalf of attorney Sharen Neuhardt, was taken 5/27-6/2 among 504 likely voters, for a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.2%. Neuhardt and State Senator Steve Austria were tested.

General Election Matchup
Austria............41
Neuhardt.........35

Generic Dem...46
Generic GOP...33

Republicans in the district, which encompasses the southern exurbs of Columbus and the city of Springfield, due west of the state capital, got lucky in recruiting Austria if the generic ballot situation is as bad for them as it looks. Austria is the State Senate Majority Whip, and he comes to the race with a solid electoral base.

But if the party truly has trouble keeping the seat in their hands -- Hobson never had a problem winning the seat, and President Bush won it by 14 points in 2004 -- the national landscape will get a lot worse for the party before it gets better.

Austria had a big cash advantage, but through the March 31 FEC filing deadline he had managed to spend $424,000 and retained just $51,000 in the bank. Neuhardt had raised $172,000 and kept $49,000 on hand.