In a race that has seen more bizarre twists and turns than most others this year, Democrats look well positioned to pick up a sprawling suburban and exurban Illinois seat this November. A new poll conducted for State Senator Debbie Halvorson shows the Democrat leading her Republican rival, businessman Martin Ozinga, by a significant margin in the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jerry Weller.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research (the firm that polled for victorious Democratic candidates in Louisiana and Mississippi earlier this year), tested Halvorson, Ozinga and Green Party candidate Jason Wallace among 500 likely voters between 5/18-22 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

General Election Matchup
Halvorson......43
Ozinga...........32
Wallace............6

Halvorson remains below 50%, but there are impressive signs within the poll. A generic Democrat leads a generic Republican by a 33%-19% margin among the remaining undecided voters, and the Democrats in Congress gets a more favorable rating than their GOP rivals -- 49% see Democrats in Congress favorably, compared with 42% who view them unfavorably, while 40% say they view GOP members favorably and 50% who see them unfavorably.

Ozinga isn't down for the count yet. The owner of a concrete business, Ozinga was tapped by district Republicans to replace the party's nominee who bowed out for financial reasons and seemed largely uninterested in running for Congress. While Halvorson got a strong fundraising head start, with $673,000 in the bank through March, Ozinga's fundraising got off to a similarly muscular beginning and he will be able to donate to his own cause.

The Republican has a long way to go in a district that expands from the southern Chicago suburbs and Joliet, east and south in the shape of a T. But while Halvorson's lead is formidable at the moment, Ozinga at least gives the GOP a decent shot at keeping an increasingly Democratic seat in their possession.