A new survey conducted for North Carolina State Senator Kay Hagan seems to confirm what is becoming a growing consensus in Washington: First-term incumbent Elizabeth Dole, despite sky-high name recognition and reasonably high favorable ratings, will face a difficult run for re-election this year, though she remains the favorite.

The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research, surveyed 800 likely voters from 5/14-21, beginning a week after Hagan won the Democratic primary, for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Dole and Hagan were tested.

General Election Matchup
Dole............48
Hagan.........44

Most polls aren't conducted over a span of eight days, but then again, most internal polls don't include 800 likely voters, either. And lest either campaign complain, John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt have earned their chops this year, having polled for winning Democratic candidates in special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana. How close are they on this poll? It would fit near the most recent survey to come out of the state and nails the latest RCP North Carolina Senate Average, which shows Dole leading by exactly four points.

In a polling memo sent to the campaign, snippets of which Hagan's camp will release this morning, Anzalone and Liszt call Dole's support soft and wonder whether the Republican has any place to grow. "There are few voters who don't already know [Dole], making it difficult for her to expand her support," the pollsters write.

Dole has yet to release her internal figures, but the senator's campaign released an advertisement last week focusing on her efforts to craft immigration reform legislation and her work with sheriffs from around the state. That advertisement, some North Carolina political watchers say, is less about Dole's efforts on immigration than about Dole's presence throughout the Tar Heel State.