Washington State Governor Christine Gregoire has no illusions about the challenge she faces from former State Senator Dino Rossi in November. The incumbent Democrat won by just over 100 votes in 2004, after three ballot counts. But a new survey from a Washington State-based pollster shows this time, the governor has a better lead. At least for now.

The Elway Poll, conducted 6/18-22, surveyed 405 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Gregoire and Rossi were tested.

General Election Matchups
(All / Ind)
Gregoire.....47 / 43 (+4 from last, 4/22)
Rossi..........39 / 37 (+1)

The poll, conducted by independent pollster Stuart Elway, has been relatively consistent, showing Gregoire in the mid-40s since January while Rossi hovers just under the 40% mark. Both candidates receive about the same amount of support from their own parties, giving Gregoire an advantage in a state with more Democratic voters than Republicans, though no official party registration numbers exist. In April, Rossi led by four points among self-identified independents; now, Gregoire has a six-point lead among the same voters.

Republicans have long been critical of Elway's polling, suggesting it favors Democratic candidates. And Rossi is in strong position, having raised about the same amount as Gregoire in recent months. Though Gregoire held a big financial advantage when Rossi began raising money, her burn rate has been much higher, giving Rossi a chance to catch up. Still, the poll tracks with live-call surveys throughout the year that show Gregoire maintaining a narrow lead.

At the end of the day, though, any incumbent under 50% faces a difficult challenge ahead. Gregoire is running in a favorable year for Democrats in a state that is likely to give the candidate at the top of her ticket, Barack Obama, a big win. But Rossi has as good a shot as any Republican challenger running for governor this year, and when voters start tuning into the governor's race, the contest could close significantly.