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GOP Hopes Up In IA, CA

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News hasn't been good for national Republicans this year, but primaries tomorrow offer some hope that 2008 will not be a complete loss. In California, the party shed a tainted incumbent member of Congress, giving two high-profile candidates a better chance in November, while in Iowa Democrats have a chance to boot a long-time incumbent in a swing district in favor of a much more liberal challenger.

Retirements are not always welcome, but in Rep. John Doolittle's case, the GOP breathed a sigh of relief when he announced he wouldn't run again. Doolittle is the target of an ongoing federal investigation surrounding his relationship with several lobbyists, including Jack Abramoff; his Virginia home was raided by the FBI last year, and had he run again he likely would have been the underdog against repeat candidate Charlie Brown. Doolittle won his suburban Sacramento district with 49%, beating Brown by just 9,000 votes.

Running to replace the embattled incumbent, former Rep. Doug Ose and State Senator Tom McClintock have gotten feisty, but both would give Republicans a strong shot at retaining the seat. Ose represented the neighboring district in Congress, while McClintock, something of a conservative icon in the state, represents a Senate district several hundred miles south of Sacramento. Brown is on top of the DCCC's target list, but without Doolittle as an opponent his chances are slim.

In Iowa, Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell has faced several tough re-election battles, winning just 52% against a State Senator in 2006. Boswell's Des Moines-based district voted once for President Bush and once for John Kerry, though only a few hundred votes separated the winner and loser each time.

Still, once Barack Obama won the state in January, former State Rep. Ed Fallon, who ran as the most liberal candidate for governor in 2006, jumped in the race, arguing Boswell was too conservative for his Democratic electorate. Fallon, who finished third in the gubernatorial primary, would give Republicans a strong chance at picking up the seat in November.

But Fallon has raised and spent little money, and the only public poll shows Boswell with a huge lead before tomorrow's primary. If the incumbent keeps the Democratic nomination, his Republican opponent, former Congressional aide Kim Schmett, will be a serious underdog come November.

Two other races worth mentioning: In California's southern Fifty Second District, Iraq war veteran Duncan D. Hunter is running to replace his father, Duncan L. Hunter, in Congress. The younger Hunter's wife spent a significant time on the campaign trail in her husband's stead while he served in Iraq, and Hunter is likely to keep the seat in his family's possession. Santee City Councilman Brian Jones and San Diego County Board of Education President Bob Watkins are also running.

And in Iowa, while national Republicans had hinted that Democratic Senator Tom Harkin would be in trouble come November, the party failed to recruit any of its top-tier candidates, including Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham. Harkin has made a career out of beating GOP members of Congress, though this year he will face a far weaker opponent. Former State Rep. George Eichhorn and businessmen Steve Rathje and Chris Reed are running to face Harkin in the Fall.

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