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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Dodd, Conrad Face Ethics Probe | Blog Home Page | Strategy Memo: Companion Fare »

Dole Ads Boost Lead

Early advertising can be effective, and North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole has flexed her financial muscle in recent weeks to build a bigger lead in what had looked like a surprisingly close fight for re-election. A new poll shows Dole with a much bigger lead over her Democratic opponent, and running ahead in virtually every region in the state.

The survey, conducted 6/11-13 by Tel Opinion Research on behalf of the Civitas Institute, polled 600 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Dole, State Senator Kay Hagan and Libertarian candidate Chris Cole were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Dole.......48 / 25 / 83 / 38 / 51 / 45 (+3)
Hagan....38 / 61 / 7 / 38 / 33 / 41 (-5)
Cole..........1 / 1 / 0 / 3 / 1 / 1

Dole's lead is healthy in every region of the state except for the heavily Democratic Research Triangle region, where Hagan has a five-point lead, and in Hagan's home region, known as the Triad. Dole has also improved her standing among independent voters; the two are tied now, but last month's Civitas poll showed her trailing Hagan by twelve points.

Too, the Senator's choice to focus early advertising dollars on advertisements highlighting her work on curbing illegal immigration has paid off heavily. Among those who care most about illegal immigration, Dole boasts a 63%-20% lead over Hagan. Voters who say taxes and highway construction leads their priority list back Dole by wide margins as well. Those who care about the economy, the top issue in the poll, favor Hagan by a ten-point margin.

Dole is doing something about that deficit among voters who say the economy is the top issue. Last week, the campaign released a second advertisement focusing on her work on the economy, featuring testimonials from Tar Heels.

Hagan has raised eyebrows recently in Washington and North Carolina with strong fundraising performances and a series of polls before this one that show the Democrat running close to the incumbent Republican. Last week, she held a fundraiser with Democratic Senators Claire McCaskill, of Missouri, and Jon Tester, of Montana. Both candidates are expected to turn in big money numbers at the end of this quarter.

The latest RCP North Carolina Senate Average shows Dole leading by 7.5 points.