After some early polls showed a competitive race, incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman has opened up a sizable lead and is over the magic 50% mark, a new poll shows. Coleman's Democratic opponent, satirist Al Franken, has undergone one of the worst few months in recent political memory, and the fact that he remains at least close should inspire Coleman to take Franken's threat seriously.

The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University on behalf of the Wall Street Journal and WashingtonPost.com, surveyed 1,572 likely voters between 6/17-24 for a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. Coleman and Franken were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Coleman......51 / 17 / 92 / 55 / 57 / 45
Franken.......41 / 76 / 4 / 35 / 37 / 45

From back taxes to failure to offer certain kinds of insurance to his employees to a flap over an article he wrote for Playboy Magazine, Franken has been battered for months by national Republicans. Still, the race remains close, showing off the state's natural Democratic tilt. Franken's impressive fundraising ability will help some, but Coleman's no slouch in the bank account department.

For Coleman, an attentive campaigner who has distanced himself from the Bush Administration and is playing up his bipartisan credentials (though not to the extent of, say, Gordon Smith), the way to run this campaign is increasingly clear: If the election is about Al Franken, Coleman will win another term. If it's about President Bush and that "R" after Coleman's name, Franken will be very competitive and could pull it out.

The race is still a hot one to watch, given the tremendous amounts of money both candidates are raising, the potential for a third party candidate -- either ex-Governor Jesse Ventura or his one-time aide, former Senator Dean Barkley -- to enter the race and Franken's celebrity factor. But for now, Coleman has a substantial lead and finds himself well-positioned.