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« Strategy Memo: Shift Happens | Blog Home Page | FEC To Function »

Cannon Gets Crunched

Need further proof that this year will be dominated by a change theme? An incumbent member of Congress failed to win renomination in a primary yesterday, the third time voters in both parties have kicked their representatives out of office. In Utah, former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz easily beat Rep. Chris Cannon yesterday in a district that stretches south of Salt Lake City.

Chaffetz, the onetime place kicker for Brigham Young University who later went on to manage Governor Jon Huntsman's campaign and serve as Huntsman's first chief of staff, took 60% of the vote compared with 40% for Cannon, with 93% of precincts reporting by this morning. Cannon conceded around 11 p.m. Mountain Time last night, promising to work to elect Chaffetz.

Despite being out-raised by a seven-to-one margin and not actually living in the district, Chaffetz worked on organizing, first meeting with delegates to the district's Republican convention, where he came ten votes shy of eliminating Cannon outright, and later identifying precinct captains to get supporters to the polls. Cannon blamed his loss on low turnout, though immigration has been a factor in Cannon's narrow nomination wins before (See our preview of the race from yesterday).

But Chaffetz also maintained that his victory was a win for a new Republican Party. "We rocked the vote here in Utah and we rocked the Republican Party," Chaffetz told supporters, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. Even the NRCC chimed in on the theme. "Chaffetz ran a grassroots campaign that centered on changing the way Washington does business -- a theme that will be equally pertinent during the general election in the fall," the NRCC wrote in a memo explaining the results.

That's a motto other challengers to incumbents have taken up as well. In Maryland, Rep. Wayne Gilchrist lost his Republican primary battle to more conservative State Senator Andy Harris, while Rep. Al Wynn lost his Democratic primary race with nonprofit executive Donna Edwards, both by wide margins. (Wynn resigned his seat early, and Edwards, who won the special election to replace him, was sworn into Congress last week)

Still, most incumbents are going to easily win their own primaries this year, meaning the change message will be replayed across the country. That's good for any challenger facing an entrenched incumbent; though this year, given President Bush's low approval ratings, it is likely to benefit Democrats more than Republicans.

It won't help the party in Utah's Third District, though. Chaffetz is running in a district in which President Bush won 77% of the vote in 2004 and 75% in 2000, the fifth-highest performing Bush district in the country. Chaffetz is all but assured a seat in the 111th Congress.