Two weeks before the second quarter of 2008 ends, an illegal immigration hardliner has released a poll taken in late March that shows the Republican leading his Democratic opponent in what one adviser calls the party's best chance at taking over a Democratic-held seat come November. Democrats, on the other hand, point to their incumbent's huge cash advantage while suggesting the looming financial deadline is the real motivator.

The poll, conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research for Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta's campaign, surveyed 400 likely voters between 3/27-29, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Barletta, the Republican nominee, and incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski were tested.

General Election Matchup
Barletta........47
Kanjorski......42

Just 39% of respondents say they would vote to re-elect Kanjorski, who is seeking his thirteenth term in Congress, while 45% say they think it is time to give a new person a chance. And Barletta, the poll shows, is widely-known: After a crusade against illegal immigration that's landed him on Fox News and CNN, 59% of district residents view him favorably, compared with 13% who see him unfavorably.

But then there's the money. Or rather, there isn't the money, on Barletta's behalf. Though his national stature should be the foundation from which he raises serious cash, he managed to raise just $184,000 and kept $154,000 on hand. Kanjorski, when he decides to flex some financial muscle, has $1.83 million at his disposal, and a history of dispatching opponents including Barletta.

In 2002, the mayor raised and spent $566,000 on a race against Kanjorski, who won with 56% of the vote. A solid win, but the lowest percentage Kanjorski had ever received. The Democrat won with 72% in 2006 and with 94% in 2004. For more on the race, check out our overview of a contest in which immigration is sure to play a huge role.