Third-term Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave is headed for yet another contentious and costly election, a new poll conducted for her Democratic opponent shows. Musgrave, who replaced Rep. Bob Schaffer in 2002, won just 46% of the vote in 2006, making her the lowest-scoring winner of the entire cycle (A Reform Party candidate took 11%). It's not Musgrave's first close call; after taking 55% in her initial election, Musgrave won just 51% in 2004.

The poll, conducted by Bennett, Petts and Normington, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 400 likely voters in the Fourth District between 5/13-15, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Musgrave and Betsy Markey, a former top aide to Senator Ken Salazar, were tested among a sample which included 40% self-identified Republican voters, 29% Democratic voters and 31% independents.

General Election Matchup
Markey.......43
Musgrave...36

A poll taken for Musgrave in March showed her leading, though her campaign could not be reached for comment. When Politics Nation gets in touch with them, find those results in this space.

Musgrave has always had trouble with voters in the district, just 37% of whom view her favorably, while 48% view her unfavorably. 40% say her job performance in Congress is excellent or good, while 51% say it's "not so good" or poor. For an incumbent, none of those are good positions in which to be. She's not helped by national factors either; President Bush has just a 39% job approval rating in the district, with 60% who disapprove.

To keep her seat, which is based north and east of Denver in Colorado's High Plains and includes Fort Collins, Musgrave will not be able to rely on the heavy spending national Republicans did on her behalf in 2006. Musgrave is preparing for the challenge, having raised $1.38 million through the end of March and maintaining just over $1 million in the bank. But Markey is no pushover; she's raised $594,000 so far this year and still had $376,000 on hand, not an insignificant amount.

National Democrats will pay close attention to the race come November, hoping to snag yet another piece of GOP territory. President Bush won the seat by a 58%-41% margin over John Kerry, and by a wider 21-point margin over Al Gore.