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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Losing Candidates Under The Bus | Blog Home Page | Interview With The Candidates »

Competition In Texas?

Despite a huge name-recognition advantage and a hefty bank account, is there a possibility that Senator John Cornyn could be in jeopardy come November? A new poll shows Cornyn could face a difficult fight for re-election, though he maintains a decent lead. If Cornyn finds himself in trouble, he won't be the only one, as the national landscape would need to boost Democrats enough to give them reasonable shots at other second- and third-tier targets.

The poll, conducted by Research 2000 for DailyKos, surveyed 600 likely voters from 5/5-7 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Cornyn and his Democratic opponent, State Rep. Rick Noriega.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Cornyn 48 / 11 / 81 / 45 / 53 / 43
Noriega 44 / 82 / 13 / 45 / 40 / 48

Cornyn is known by a huge majority of Texas voters. 50% say they view him favorably, while 41% say they see him in an unfavorable light. By contrast, just 42% have a favorable view of Noriega, while 31% view him unfavorably.

To become better known, or to reduce Cornyn's margin, Noriega will have to be competitive with Cornyn financially. That could be nearly impossible; Cornyn has raised $9.1 million so far and still has almost $8.7 million in the bank, compared with just $329,000 on hand for Noriega. The Democrat had raised a total of just under $1.5 million before the March 31 FEC deadline.

Noriega still has a big hill to climb come November, but the Research 2000 poll shows at least the possibility that Democrats could seriously expand the playing field this year.