Strategy Memo: Wright Back At Ya
Good Monday morning, and welcome to the column formerly known as Morning Thoughts. With just over a week to go before North Carolinians and Hoosiers vote, and as Politics Nation makes his way back across the country, here's an abbreviated version of what Washington is watching today:
-- The Senate meets this afternoon to consider a reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration, with a motion for cloture coming early this evening. The House will remain out of session until Tuesday. President Bush meets with Alvaro Colom Caballeros, the President of Guatemala and the chairs of the US-Brazil CEO Forum, while Vice President Cheney fundraises for the North Carolina Victory Committee in Raleigh, the week after the state party there came under fire for releasing an advertisement highlighting Barack Obama's ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
-- Wright was in the news this weekend, and he's not going away for a little while. After appearing on Bill Moyers' program on PBS (video here), Wright addressed the Detroit NAACP's annual banquet, a major event that has drawn politicos and prominent newsmakers for more than 50 years. The speech was broadcast live, at least on CNN, and if the Reverend flew into Washington this morning he would have seen his comments being replayed again. He's in Washington to address a breakfast at the National Press Club, a day after giving a sermon in Dallas, as the Dallas Morning News reports, and this morning he will address a breakfast at the National Press Club. After more than a month of relative media silence, Wright is reemerging with a bang.
-- In general, every time Wright's name comes up, it reminds voters -- with the help of certain bloggers -- that Obama is associated with his former church. As questions of Obama's appeal to white working-class males in the Midwest persist after losing both Ohio and Pennsylvania on the backs of that demographic's vote for rival Hillary Clinton, some have rightly started questioning whether Wright is the vehicle for Obama's enemies to, however subtly, make race an issue. Obama's campaign, which has lately been quick to jump on perceived attacks (all three campaigns seem sensitive lately) can't have been happy with the candidate's proclamation on Fox News yesterday: "The fact that [Wright] is my former pastor ... makes it a legitimate issue," Obama said, per USA Today.
-- But as was evident last week, John McCain walks what could become an increasingly impossible tightrope when the issue of Rev. Wright comes up. On one hand, McCain can be tarnished by even associating with what might be seen as exploitation of some kinds of racism, and he's worked hard to avoid any. See his response, in a personal email to and via pressure on the chairwoman of the North Carolina Republican Party last week. He has repeatedly said that he wants the contest to be fought out on issues, rather than on attacks. But on the other, he has not only failed to hold his own party responsible -- Tar Heel Republicans are reportedly going ahead with plans to air the ad -- but he's also called Wright an issue, which he did yesterday at a media availability in Florida, as Fox News' Mosheh Oinounou reports. "Senator Obama himself says it's a legitimate political issue so I would imagine that many other people would share that view and it will be in the arena." The Obama campaign hit back hard, saying McCain is "sinking to a level that he specifically said he'd avoid." Full statement here.
-- On the other hand, Obama still has to get through a Democratic primary, which he can do with big wins in North Carolina and Indiana. After a few weekend polls, Obama is running ahead of Clinton in both states -- up 15.5 points in North Carolina and up 3 points in Indiana, according to the latest RCP Indiana and North Carolina Averages.
-- A big reason the Obama campaign should be optimistic: Indiana looks a lot like Ohio and Pennsylvania, and Clinton maintains the same institutional support she had in the other states, thanks mostly to Hoosier-ville's most popular Democrat, Senator Evan Bayh. But unlike in the Buckeye State and the Keystone State, Obama's poll numbers look a lot better; in one poll last week, he hit the 50% threshold, and in another he's at 48 points. Remember that in his previous two losses, Obama couldn't break out of the low 40s in pre-election polls. He's done that now, giving him the opportunity to win the state. A word of warning, though: Pollster Ann Selzer, who has been spot on in both Iowa contests and the Michigan Republican race, has Obama ahead but at just 41% to Clinton's 38% in a poll conducted for the Indianapolis Star, meaning there are a lot of undecideds left to win over.
-- Gadfly Of The Day: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee each own a combined 542 delegates they can add to John McCain's total once he gets to St. Paul. But as the Nevada GOP found out this weekend, Ron Paul's campaign isn't quite finished yet, and they have the organization to eek out a few more than the 14 delegates they currently control. We've seen Paul supporters turn out big time to county conventions in Missouri and other places where lagging interest allows one candidate to pick up a few extra delegates, and this time it was the Silver State's turn to deal with huge Paulite turnout. The state party had to close down their convention early after Paul backers outnumbered McCain supporters, even with Romney, who won Nevada's caucuses, in the room urging a McCain win. How Republicans deal with a possible Paul speaking bid at the convention this summer could be a fascinating side story to watch.
-- Today On The Trail: Obama has town hall meetings planned for Wilmington and Wilson, North Carolina, before hitting an early vote rally at the university in Chapel Hill. Clinton will have her own early voting event in Salisbury before rallying supporters at an arena in Charlotte, North Carolina. John McCain is in Florida raising money.


