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« Today On POTUS '08 | Blog Home Page | SCOTUS Allows Voter IDs »

Strategy Memo: Long, Slow Decline

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Good Tuesday morning. We thought we might have spent too much time on the Rev. Jeremiah Wright yesterday morning, but after his speech at the National Press Club yesterday, we are no longer of that opinion. More Strategy Memos will be dedicated largely to Wright's effect on the campaign, we're sure. Meanwhile, here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate this morning resumes consideration of the FAA reauthorization bill today, after months of delay over disputes about how to fund certain upgrades to the nation's aviation infrastructure. The House handles three measures designed to transfer land to Native American tribes in the Southwest, followed by a huge bill dealing with dozens of smaller natural resource issues, as well as relief for struggling credit unions. President Bush meets with the U.N. Special Envoy to Afghanistan at the White House today, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meets with Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda.

-- Wright's media blitz, taking him from PBS to Dallas to Detroit to Washington over the weekend, is the talk of the town, and few understand what he's trying to do. Most agree that Wright's reemergence, especially at the Press Club yesterday, did little to help his former congregant, Barack Obama, as AP's Nedra Pickler writes today. The reemergence of a prominent leader, especially one who has not spoken to the media after such a firestorm, is big news, and voters in Indiana and North Carolina are going to get a face full of Wright, whether on the news, from blogs or from organizations seeking to divide the Democratic constituency.

-- One major concern super delegates and other influential endorsers have with the Wright issue is the simple fact that it's been going on for so long -- his controversial speeches reemerged on the national stage about two months ago now -- and yet Obama strategists have not put the story behind them. They seem to realize Wright presents them with a problem; at a tarmac news conference in Wilmington yesterday, Obama addressed his former minister in stronger language than usual: "Some of the comments that Reverend Wright has made offended me and I understand why they offend the American people," and "He does not speak for me. He does not speak for the campaign," per NYT's Jeff Zeleny. When, though, can Obama really put Wright behind him? What if, super delegates may ask, a scandal comes up in September or October that the campaign has similar trouble dealing with before November?

-- In fact, Obama has had a bad few weeks. Combining Wright with negativity toward rival Hillary Clinton, a tough loss in Pennsylvania and other missteps in the long interregnum between the Texas and Ohio primaries and April 22, the effect for the Illinois Senator has been severe and marked slippage in his national and state-by-state poll numbers. What was a ten-point lead over Clinton in the RCP National Average, just about a week ago, is now down to just under six points. After climbing all month, his lead over John McCain in the RCP General Election Average is down to just a point and a half. And Obama's leads over Clinton in North Carolina and Indiana are both down from last week. No matter the average, Obama has taken some serious lumps and it's having a dramatic effect. Clinton will take advantage by pointing to an AP/Ipsos poll, out today, that has her leading McCain by nine points, and at over 50%, while Obama stumbles ahead by just two.

-- Super delegates, though, are still moving in one obvious direction. Since the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, six super delegates have endorsed Obama, including Oregon Rep. David Wu, whose state votes by May 20, and Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry and New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, two western red state Democrats whose voices have sway inside their states. Two super delegates, meanwhile, have endorsed Clinton (that number grows to three today when North Carolina Governor Mike Easley jumps on board; more on that in a minute). Obama now leads Clinton in super delegates among his Senate colleagues, the Post's Jonathan Weisman writes, and he's on his way to leading her among all super delegates.

-- That last statement, per the Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes, comes as Clinton boasts just a 20-super delegate lead over Obama, according to the latest RCP Delegate Count. At the beginning of this calendar year, that lead was hovering near 100 super delegates. Perhaps more importantly, her lead among party elders was once a top Clinton argument for staying in a race in which she is losing the pledged delegate vote total. With pressure mounting on both candidates to end the race by June, forget the Rev. Wright; how can a candidate trailing in both kinds of delegates actually justify staying in the race if her opponent has yet to collapse?

-- Maybe the truth is that neither Democratic candidate is as strong as once thought. A Clinton victory in the primaries would still divide some parts of the party and the country; an Obama victory could spell defeat in November virtually regardless of who the GOP nominee is. An John McCain, on day two of his "Call to Action Tour" and addressing health care issues in Tampa, Florida, is in excellent position for a candidate with no money: His Republican National Committee has far outraised its Democratic counterpart, and McCain is far ahead of either Democratic candidate in terms of planning for the general election candidate. Oh, and when was the last time conservatives said anything bad about their party's standard-bearer? That "conversation" McCain promised to have with the right wing of the party seems to have worked out pretty well, and a lot faster than expected.

-- Endorsement Of The Day: In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey and Governor Ed Rendell were huge surrogates for both Democratic candidates, and so far Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has been Clinton's constant companion. But today's endorsement, from North Carolina Governor Mike Easley, could be just as important psychologically as it is politically (NBC's First Read has the background). Easley is a smart operator who has a long career in a very red state; those sorts of politicians have tended toward Obama in the past. And he's jumping on board the Clinton campaign, relieving those who might have thought the only thing they could do was to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Side story to watch: Could John Edwards be far behind?

-- Today On The Trail: Obama has town hall meetings in Winston-Salem and Hickory, North Carolina. Clinton tours a bio-manufacturing business at North Carolina State University in Raleigh before joining Easley to accept his endorsement. Later, she tours a factory in Indianapolis, holds a town hall meeting in Hobart and a rally in Princeton, Indiana. McCain will offer a speech on health care at a cancer center at the University of South Florida. This afternoon, Bill Clinton hits four events in eastern North Carolina.

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