Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, is not supposed to be where she is today. Facing Democrats' top candidate in her bid for a third term, polls for months have shown her leading by a wide margin, and though she's running for re-election in what looks like a favorable year for Democrats, in an increasingly Democratic-leaning state, Collins is one of the top Democratic targets to remain a heavy favorite to keep her job.

Polls this Fall showed Collins with double-digit leads, hovering near 20-point margins. A McLaughlin & Associates poll, conducted for the Coalition for a Democratic Workforce 3/6-9, surveyed 400 registered voters on horse race matchups and questions about the rights of union workers to vote on organizing by secret ballot. Collins and her Democratic rival, Rep. Tom Allen, were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

General Election Matchup
Collins 54
Allen 31

Both congressional districts in Maine are seen as safely Democratic; the winner of the crowded Democratic primary to replace Allen is highly likely to be sworn into Congress next year. But Collins, like several other targeted Republicans, has successfully distanced herself from the Bush Administration, and her close working relationship with Independent Senator Joe Lieberman bred an endorsement that will help her among independent voters.

An overlooked factor working in Collins' favor is the state's senior senator, fellow Republican Olympia Snowe. Together, the two are among the most popular senators in their home states.

Allen, though, has a chance to make this race competitive. He's well-funded, and if he can bring Collins' favorable ratings down while tying her to the White House and Republicans as a whole, he should benefit from higher turnout during a presidential year, especially as the Democratic nominee is expected to take the state's four electoral votes. Still, his strategy at this point has to be taking votes away from Collins, and getting her below 50% has to be Allen's top priority.