Morning Thoughts: The End Is Near!
Good Friday morning. The campaign takes a bit of a pause today as the candidates pause to remember the fortieth anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King. In addition to the commemorations in Memphis, here's what Washington is watching today:
-- The House is in pro forma session today, while the Senate will keep working on housing legislation that inspired some fireworks on the floor yesterday. President Bush is finishing up his meetings at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania, before meeting with the host prime minister. Later, he heads to Zagreb for a meeting with Croatian President Stjepan Mesic. In other administration news, just as the president threatens to send a trade pact with Colombia to Congress, where it could meet defeat, U.S. Trade Rep. Susan Schwab is on a Congressional Delegation trip to the country, no doubt trying to swing some votes.
-- Many are looking toward the Democratic race ending in a loud and contentious convention in Denver, where Barack Obama's and Hillary Clinton's supporters will be at each other's throats. Howard Dean and Harry Reid endorsed a plan to make super delegates declare their intentions by July 1, heading off that potentially disastrous situation. But what if the race ends much earlier than that? New movement suggests it just might. What was once a 16-point edge for Clinton is now just a 5.4-percentage point margin, according to the latest RCP Pennsylvania Average. The gap closed quickly after a few days of serious advertising and a six-day bus trip through the state. With just over two weeks to go before Keystoners vote, Obama is within striking distance in a state Clinton should win.
-- If Obama wins in Pennsylvania, Clinton's rationale for staying in the race will collapse: He will have won a big state, a state where a win is heavily dependent on white, working-class voters, and a November swing state. He will also virtually assure himself a victory in the entire contest's popular vote count, and super delegates will flock his way. In short, an Obama win in Pennsylvania cuts off all the oxygen Clinton needs to continue.
-- Of course, Clinton faces other challenges as well. USA Today's Susan Page got the notion that the race will end by North Carolina's contests, in a must-read out yesterday. A new poll from Indiana shows Clinton leading that must-win state by just three points, but we don't have enough data to create an RCP Indiana Average just yet. Conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around the notion that Clinton has to win each state, and in a big way, if she can resist calls to bow out before the convention. A tightening Pennsylvania race, a North Carolina contest in which Obama maintains a big lead and a narrow Indiana fight are not positive indicators for Team Clinton.
-- But, as we seem to have written a hundred times, don't count Clinton out just yet. In the four weeks after Super Tuesday, Clinton's team built a massive organization in Ohio and Texas, where she scored wins big enough to keep her campaign alive. And Ed Rendell knows how to win the state (but so does Bob Casey). Clinton maintains a lead, and it's one that she's not going to give up easily. Every time, in this campaign, that Clinton's back has been against the wall, she's prevailed. Obama's support is down among key voting demographics, the new New York Times/CBS News poll reports, and, they write, it's a sign that Obama's momentum is slowing down.
-- Still, it can't be very energizing to see that Obama raised not $30 million, as we suggested the other day, but $40 million in March (what's $10 million among friends?) while Clinton pulled in just $20 million (Just?!?). Despite being her second-best month of the campaign, after February, Clinton is in a hole that's getting wider by the minute. After about fourteen months on the trail, Obama's pulled in a whopping $237 million to Clinton's $193 million, the Times writes today. That's $400 million already. Add in John McCain's money -- somewhere north of $55 million, probably higher than $60 million -- and that of Rudy Giuliani (to say nothing of Mitt Romney or John Edwards) and the race has already easily topped half a billion dollars.
-- On the Republican side, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis will speak to the Republican National Committee today, his third day at the party's meeting at a resort just north of Albuquerque. Yesterday, RNC chief Mike Duncan and victory committee chair Carly Fiorina addressed members, expressing their excitement at the prospect of a protracted Democratic fight. In an interview with Politics Nation, Davis said he doesn't think McCain's biography tour is being drowned out by the Democratic squabbling, and expressed surprise that such a soft news tour had garnered such good press. Check back for more from Davis in the coming days.
-- Portent Of The Day: There should be a question mark there. Did Barack Obama smoke a cigarette in August? Jake Tapper thinks so, and though his campaign denied it, Obama did tell Hardball last night that he's had a few since trying to quit in February. No big deal, right? Tapper thinks the incident, like the Austan Goolsbee meeting with a representative of the Canadian government incident, is another example of Obama's team trying to cut a few corners and deny the truth. Hell hath no fury like a press corps scorned, and no curiosity like an untrusting press corps.
-- Today On The Trail: Obama starts his day in Fort Wayne, Indiana before heading to Grand Forks to address the North Dakota Democratic Party convention. Clinton is in Memphis this morning to remember Dr. King, and tonight she will also head to Grand Forks to speak to delegates. Bill Clinton, meanwhile, holds four campaign stops throughout North Carolina. McCain gives remarks at the National Civil Rights Museum in Memphis, formerly the motel where King was shot, and lays a wreath in memory.


