Morning Thoughts: Obama's Debate Hangover
Good Thursday morning. Not only is Pennsylvania the capital of politics until late on Tuesday night, it is also the capital-killer in the National Hockey League, as the Pittsburgh Penguins swept the Ottawa Senators last night to win their first playoff series in seven years. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Flyers are up two to one on the Washington Capitals, giving the state the chance to knock two world powers out of the Stanley Cup playoffs in one year. Aside from Game 3 tonight, here's what Washington is watching:
-- The Senate this morning continues work on a highway funding bill aimed at correcting flaws in previous legislation, while the House tackles student loans. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will meet with Lee Myung-Bak, the president of South Korea, while President Bush will spend most of the day meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Later, Brown will meet with all three presidential contenders during his brief visit to Washington.
-- Two messages came out of last night's debate in Philadelphia: One, from the media, Barack Obama had a bad night because of constant questioning about flag pins, William Ayers, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and comments that some Pennsylvanians are bitter. Obama played defense most of the evening, took a few shots at rival Hillary Clinton and was generally less humorous and detailed than his rival. The second message, this from the Obama campaign: The debate wasn't fair. Question after question, they said, slammed their candidate unfairly, and last night was the opportunity to dump everything a news organization had on Obama. Prominent Obama backers who talked to Politics Nation were genuinely angry at the tone and tenor of the debate's first 45 minutes.
-- But Clinton didn't do well either, missing repeated opportunities to hit a home run and generally turning in a typical debate performance. Something for a future Clinton rival, be it for the presidency or her Senate seat, to remember: She's really not that good in debates. Last night, Clinton seemed to be waiting for Obama to ruin himself, but she had work to do as well, work that she largely skipped. At the end, there really was no big winner, a conclusion Politics Nation came to last night (Reader mail currently running two-to-one in favor of a Clinton win, 100% for this author's early internment in a room with padded walls).
-- Those were the immediate reactions, but wise sages who know the back story are convinced that we haven't heard the last of one aspect of the debate. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, William "Billy" Ayers was a prominent member of the Weathermen, later the Weather Underground, an organization that carried out twenty bombings, including of a barbershop in the U.S. Capitol, between 1970 and 1975. Last night, Obama sought to distance himself from Ayers, now an upstanding citizen in Chicago, rejecting assertions that he and Ayers share philosophies by association. Ben Smith has the full rundown of the answer. But the two are more closely associated than Obama would lead some to believe; they served on the board of a Chicago charity together and Obama attended a fundraiser at Ayers' house. But as NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan points out, it's not a question Obama has had to answer yet, ensuring it will get another round of press attention.
-- Last night was great for John McCain, though. If the Republican's campaign was looking for an excuse to portray Obama as someone out of touch with mainstream America, this last week has been a golden opportunity. First, they can portray Obama as a left coast elitist yuppie, making his dismissive comments about rural voters in, of all places, San Francisico, where liberals drink more fine red wine than pints of Yuengling. With the rise of Ayers, McCain has an excuse to drag Obama back to the counterculture of the Vietnam era. McCain has long pointed to his friendship with some serious Vietnam protesters, but people who actually bombed things? The combination of long-haired hippie meets latte liberal could paint Obama as dangerously out of touch.
-- While last night was the final time Obama and Clinton would be together to address Pennsylvania voters, by no means are either of the campaigns giving up. With a long weekend to go before Keystone Staters head to the polls, Clinton is launching a six-day bus tour today while Obama begins his own tour tomorrow, both of which will run through Tuesday's primary. Obama is still outpacing Clinton in television advertising by a wide margin, especially in Philadelphia, where we've seen more ads for one candidate in the primary for the Democratic nomination for state Treasurer than we've seen for Clinton.
-- The Clinton campaign knows they're being outspent, and that's leading to a new spin angle: The gap between Obama spending and Clinton spending is not a small one, and it means, in Clinton spin land, that Obama should really be leading in Pennsylvania. Instead, pre-debate, Clinton was up by a 6.7-point margin, according to the latest RCP Pennsylvania Average. That deficit is a plateau Obama reached last week, and since then he's hovered in the low-40s without being able to break through. Should Obama be able to win Pennsylvania? Probably not, it's a state tailor-made for the Clinton campaign. But Obama has put a curious amount of effort into the state, with two nearly week-long bus tours and millions in advertising. Maybe a loss here, no matter the margin, is a straight-up loss. That wouldn't mean Obama's campaign is over, but it could mean that Clinton actually won a significant battle.
-- Encounter Of The Day: Stephen Colbert, who has parked himself in Philadelphia for the week promising to have an impact on the primary (more write-in votes for Doritos?), has had some big guests, including Philly Mayor Michael Nutter, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and even Michelle Obama herself -- the two had a fun back-and-forth on Tuesday night, an appearance made in lieu of the candidate himself. But tonight, oh tonight, tune in when Hillary Clinton joins Colbert at a Philadelphia theater for his show, The Swamp's Frank James writes. Could there truly be a better moment for political writers looking for an epic slip-up?
-- Today On The Trail: Clinton begins her day in Washington with a conversation with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Later, she heads to Haverford, Pennsylvania, for a block party with daughter Chelsea, before heading over to Colbert's lair. Obama will also meet with Brown before heading south, to hold a town hall meeting in Raleigh and hit a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, a smaller town near the coast. McCain is down today.


