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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Gov Assocs Report Big Bucks | Blog Home Page | Unanue Subbing In NJ »

Morning Thoughts: Obama, Out!

Good Thursday morning. American Airlines has canceled another 900 or so flights, and the Plains states are about to get whacked with a few inches of snow. So, if you're traveling to, say, Fargo today, we feel bad for you. Ensconced in a foggy but warming Washington, here's what folks are paying attention to today:

-- The Senate will dispense with energy legislation by voting on final passage today, and will take up a bill on natural resources later this afternoon. The House, meanwhile, will take up a measure that would roll back a requirement that the lower chamber act on trade deals within 90 days of the president sending them over, allowing the body to avoid acting on the Colombian trade deal the White House sent over earlier this week. President Bush will have breakfast with General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker before addressing the nation on Iraq, after which he will head back to the ranch in Crawford, Texas.

-- Barack Obama has laid out what is likely to be his answer on accepting public financing for the general election, and something so arcane could actually become an issue. At a fundraiser yesterday, Obama said small, internet-based contributors have set up a parallel to the public financing system currently in place, adding what he considers new democracy to the fundraising process, the New York Times reports. That answer comes a year after Obama said he would accept public financing for a general election, and after a year of stellar financial returns, including more than $40 million raised in the last month alone. Obama's campaign says no decision on money matters will be made until the primary is over, but the comments strongly suggest that he's looking for a way to back out.

-- Take a look at the issue from all three candidates' perspectives, beginning with Obama's: Few thought Obama could win a year ago, when he and John Edwards were trying to be the cleanest candidate to contrast with the Hillary Clinton juggernaut. Yet once he took the lead in pledged delegates, Obama had to look ahead to a potential general election matchup with John McCain. In an era when national Democrats are virtually always outspent by Republicans, why would Obama give up the one time when his party has a huge advantage? Yes, $84.1 million, which is what candidates would get to spend from their conventions through the November election, is a lot of money. But it's not much compared with $150 million or more that Obama might be able to raise.

-- From Clinton's and McCain's perspective, anything Obama does is wrong: If he opts for public financing, he's throwing away the biggest advantage the party will have, and, if Obama loses, the "I told you so" from the Clinton family is going to be difficult to ignore in a 2012 primary. If he opts out of the system, McCain suddenly becomes the clean candidate, and while it may be an inside baseball argument, McCain gets to say that he's the one playing by the rules while Obama flaunts them. It's not an argument that will move a quarter of the vote, but it is one more in the slippery slope of labeling Obama as a practitioner of politics as usual, something the McCain team will try hard to do.

-- Why is McCain taking the money? For two reasons, one called necessity and one called Carly. McCain has never been a prodigious fundraiser -- even though he didn't have competitive races, he spent just $2.1 million and $2.4 million in his 2004 and 1998 re-election bids -- and $84 million is a lot of money, especially for two months. The second reason is Carly Fiorina, head of the RNC's Victory Committee, the wing of the party that will focus on electing McCain by building the infrastructure he needs to compete (look for a forthcoming interview with Fiorina on the RCP Blog). The RNC is planning to raise about $150 million, Marc Ambinder reports, making Obama's decision to skip out on his own public financing all the easier. The party already has $25 million in its coffers, while the Democratic National Committee has just $5 million or so on hand, and Howard Dean's DNC doesn't look like it will be able to catch up.

-- So what's Obama to do? Hand off the millions he raises to the DNC to keep him financially competitive? Not likely, as that seems a sure way to put one's fate in another's control, something it's never good to do. Instead, he seems headed toward giving up public financing and instead taking some lumps from McCain in the general. But keep an eye on the financing question; Obama's worked hard on his squeaky-clean image, and the guy who looks cleanest is frequently the guy who falls hardest. Too, his is the veneer easiest to strip off, given the high expectations he's set. Part of McCain's charm is that he's not perfect and he flaunts it. Not so with Obama. Whether or not he takes public financing may end up as more of an issue than we think.

-- Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, a day after they heard testimony from Petraeus and Crocker, Clinton and Obama kept the focus on Iraq, as the Boston Globe writes. The same argument that's been happening for a year continues, with Clinton calling Obama's promise to get out of Iraq "just words" and Obama questioning Clinton's initial vote to authorize the conflict in the first place. Sure, it's the same week the two top officials in Iraq just testified on the Hill, but if Democrats don't change the subject, John McCain -- who is more trusted on the question than both Clinton and Obama -- is going to be a happy man.

-- Missed Opportunity Of The Day: When Iraq veteran David Bellavia introduced McCain at a rally in a park near the Senate on Tuesday, he appeared to insult Obama in what might have been an over-the-line fashion: "You can have your Tiger Woods, we've got Senator McCain," Bellavia said to applause. Seems like something to get upset about, right? Not when Obama backer and Teamsters President James Hoffa makes the same comparison: "With regard to his race, he's African American. I know he's of mixed race, but, you know, he's like a Tiger Woods. He's just a great person that's really excited a lot of people," Hoffa said on a campaign conference call, per Hotline OnCall. Maybe everyone just has the Masters' on the brain.

-- Today On The Trail: In must-watch television, McCain stops by "The View" to give Elisabeth Hasselbeck a little Republican back-up. Later, he attends a small business roundtable in Brooklyn. Obama has a town hall set for Gary and Lafayette, Indiana, and Clinton will make stops at Democratic Party dinners in Hopewell Township and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Bill Clinton is stumping in Indiana today. Finally, this evening, all three candidates will appear on 'American Idol' in taped interviews.