ALBUQUERQUE, New Mexico -- Good Thursday morning. We stand by our Matchbox 20 reference, even though it seriously dates us and will probably lead some to question our sanity. Here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate will take a key test vote on legislation designed to address the housing market crisis when they meet this morning. Meanwhile, the House takes up a bill to reauthorize the U.S. Fire Administration. President Bush faces a day of meetings with NATO allies in Bucharest, Romania, after losing a bid to move the Ukraine and Georgia toward membership, a major diplomatic setback. On the Hill today, Attorney General Michael Mukasey heads to the testify before the Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over the Justice Department's funding this morning, while Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez heads to the same committee later this afternoon to address the coming census.

-- On the campaign trail, if we learn anything at all from this year, it's that no president is ever asleep at 3 a.m., apparently, because they're all too busy on the phone. In a replay of an effective ad she ran against Barack Obama in Texas, Hillary Clinton is back in Pennsylvania with another ad suggesting her rival is not ready to answer the early-morning call. But it's not Obama Clinton is targeting: "There's a phone ringing in the White House and this time the crisis is economic," the narrator intones. "John McCain just said the government shouldn't take any real action on the housing crisis, he'd let the phone keep ringing." (Script and video here)

-- The ad will run in Pennsylvania, which, sure, is a swing state in November, but the motive smells fishier and more immediate than that. Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson told reporters on a conference call unveiling the new ad that he thinks it's the first spot to hit McCain. In fact, in recent days, Clinton's entire tone toward her rivals has changed. She's focusing more on McCain now than on Obama, perhaps to show she can beat McCain in the Fall. Obama, likewise, is taking aim at his perhaps future GOP foe, both on McCain's alleged "100 years" comment and on his economic background. Are the orders to hit McCain instead of each other coming from on high -- leading to the question, What Democrat is on high enough to force a change? -- or is the battle for Democratic votes now all about who can beat up McCain more?

-- Not to be outdone, McCain's campaign fired back at Clinton and Obama with an ad asserting their guy is perfectly capable of waking up at all hours as well. McCain's ad hits the two Democrats for wanting to raise taxes to solve the increasing economic crisis. "John McCain has a better plan: Grow jobs, grow our economy, not grow Washington," the narrator tells the audience. The ad will be emailed to McCain's list and featured on his website, but the campaign hasn't decided whether to put it on the air yet, waiting to see how many points Clinton puts behind her own ad in the Keystone State, Marc Ambinder reports (see the ad there too). In fact, the preliminary version released yesterday isn't ready for air; it doesn't have a disclaimer from McCain himself saying he approves the message.

-- In search of a good way to forecast the state of the race in November, one need look no farther than the cross-tabs. Usually, for a reasonably-sized poll, that's dangerous: Characterizing the views of union households, or any minority group, with a tiny sample size can be very misleading. But when there are 19,000 interviews in your survey sample, you'll be alright (For the record, the margin of error on a sample size of 19,076 would be +/- 0.71%. Remember that the next time you see a 400-person sample.). That's about the number of interviews Gallup has conducted between the first week of March and last week, and, while polls change, those interviews showed Obama leading McCain 46%-45%, while McCain led Clinton 47%-45%. That's essentially tied.

-- But both Democrats take very different paths to being tied. Obama does have slightly more appeal to independents and those who lean Republican. He outperforms Clinton by six points among independents and by four points among moderate and liberal Republicans. But Clinton's success comes more from conservative Democrats, who would favor her over McCain by a wider margin than they would favor Obama over the Republican.

-- The thing to worry about, if you like Obama or Clinton: McCain holds big leads among independent voters against both candidates, and his crossover appeal is stronger. Among all segments of Democratic voters, liberal, moderate and conservative, McCain draws a higher percentage than the number of Republicans either Democratic candidate would bring. But more survey respondents are telling pollsters they favor Democrats, and on the whole, that's a bigger problem for the national Republican Party.

-- In fact, McCain still needs to work on his base, and we're not just referring to conservative activists. Campaign manager Rick Davis is spending three days in Albuquerque, where Republican National Committeemembers and state chairmen are meeting to go over their rules and glad-hand each other. Davis spoke with state party executive directors yesterday, and he will meet chairs today, in advance of a keynote address at a luncheon tomorrow. That a national presidential campaign chief has to spend three days at a resort where cell phone service is spotty at best is telling, and more than a few attendees, who nonetheless swear they will work hard on McCain's behalf, are in grumbly, critical moods.

-- Temper Of The Day: "Five times to my face [Bill Richardson] said that he would never do that," a red-faced Bill Clinton yelled in a meeting with California super delegates, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Richardson's endorsement of the upstart Illinois senator, in hindsight, could have been the straw that broke the camel's back, or at least robbed said camel of his sanity. Hillary Clinton put her own spin on an endorsement to Richardson: Obama "cannot win, Bill. He cannot win," Clinton told the New Mexico Governor, per ABC's George Stephanopoulos. If McCain wins in November, is that the only way Hillary Clinton can come back and run for president again -- by doing four years of the "I told you so" dance? Then again, breaking this morning per Halperin's The Page, it might have been Richardson making that very argument to the Clintons.

-- Today On The Trail: It's a slow day of few actual events. McCain heads to Jacksonville, Florida, as he continues his biography tour. Hillary Clinton hits a fundraiser in Beverly Hills, while husband Bill tries to avoid any more tirades in trips to Altoona, Pennsylvania and Pikeville, Kentucky. Obama, having wrapped up a six-day tour of Pennsylvania, has no public events scheduled.