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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Obama Camp Clarifies Comments | Blog Home Page | Byrd Fights For Seat »

Morning Thoughts: "Bitter," Sweet And Sour

Good Monday morning. It's always nice to give away a new green jacket. Here's what jacket-less Washington is watching this morning:

-- The House meets this afternoon to consider several bills under suspension, while the Senate takes up corrections to a bill that funded highway construction and other transportation projects. Senators and members of the House begin conference committee meetings on the farm bill. President Bush is back in Washington, where he will meet with the Cabinet before handing out the Commander in Chief's trophy, given annually to one of two service academies who win a late-season football classic. This year, the Naval Academy's Midshipmen got the better of Army's Cadets.

-- A week from tomorrow, Pennsylvania voters head to the polls (remember when the contest was seven weeks out?) and, despite some stops and starts, it looks like the state is once again front and center in everyone's minds. On Friday, Barack Obama made sure Pennsylvanians knew his name, when comments he made at a San Francisco fundraiser came to light, igniting a firestorm that ensured no campaign staffers got any sleep Saturday or Sunday.

-- In response to the remarks, Hillary Clinton has become the candidate of hope and optimism, apparently. Clinton hit Obama for his comments at stops throughout Indiana yesterday, and somehow even managed to characterize herself as a gun-loving church-goer, the New York Times writes. That got an angry response from Obama, at a town hall meeting in small-town Steelton, Pennsylvania: "She's talking like she's Annie Oakley! Hillary Clinton's out there like she's on the duck blind every Sunday. She's packing a six shooter!" (CNN's video here)

-- In the course of their back-and-forths, it's very likely that both candidates went too far. Clinton, at a forum on faith in Grantham, Pennsylvania, said her concern was with Obama following previous Democratic playbooks by appearing out of touch. "We had two very good men, and men of faith, run for president in 2000 and 2004. But large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand, or relate to, or frankly respect their ways of life," she said at the forum, per CNN and Ben Smith. That's not the best way to woo the most crucial super delegate who remains uncommitted, and later Obama took his own shot, saying he believes Al Gore won the 2000 election, as Bloomberg notes.

-- Obama's faux pas could come down to referring to Clinton as Annie Oakley. As was evident most notably in New Hampshire, women voters can come home to a female candidate very quickly if they feel their gender is somehow under attack. Obama's biggest problems now are among white, working-class males. He doesn't need a bigger problem among white women as well.

-- The big positive for Obama's campaign: A scandal erupted on a Friday, and by Saturday, the campaign was fighting back hard, with an almost full-court press -- "almost" because it took until Sunday to hear from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, who defended his candidate on CNN's Late Edition. That's a big improvement over flaps surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, or underground false gossip about Obama's past, or even his adviser's comments about NAFTA to a Canadian government official. In all three cases, the campaign has been woefully, painfully slow in recognizing the crisis and responding quickly enough. This time, it took the campaign less than a day to respond. Slower than, say, James Carville would like, but still an improvement. Oh, and he won endorsements from two smaller-town newspapers this weekend, the Allentown Morning Call and the Scranton Times-Tribune.

-- Whether or not Pennsylvania voters are indeed "bitter," pundits are now guaranteed to read more into the Keystone State's results than they actually indicate: If Obama can win white voters, if Obama Republicans can be akin to Reagan Democrats, and other lessons one Democratic primary electorate can't accurately teach. But perception is reality in politics. And Obama, though he's won a number of white-dominated states, including everywhere from Maine (the whitest state) to Minnesota to Idaho and Washington, has yet to crack the true rural Democratic code. Take a look at white voters along the Appalachian corridor (Patrick Ottenhoff had a good look right after Ohio and Texas voted) and that's where Hillary Clinton has had some of her biggest margins. Those are also the people Obama said were the bitter ones. Those are also the people he's been aiming millions of dollars in television advertisements. The comments sure don't help his cause, but are they enough to derail Obama's chances in rural America completely?

-- Think about Appalachian voters, where Clinton has won (even in states like Georgia and Virginia, where she got blown out, she won big in eastern Appalachian counties) and compare that with the states left to cast ballots this Spring: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Kentucky and West Virginia all have yet to vote. Even if Obama wins North Carolina, which he's plenty likely to do given his more than 15-point lead in the latest RCP North Carolina Average, all four states will likely provide plenty of fodder for the notion that Obama is going to have trouble with white rural voters come November. That's an argument that won't win Clinton many pledged delegates, but it's certainly language super delegates can understand.

-- Friend In Need Of The Week: John McCain, buffeted by a rough period with no money and sinking support about a year ago, knows what it's like to be in need of a little help from his friends. Now, with the nomination secured, McCain is helping pal Rudy Giuliani retire $3.1 million in campaign debt. Through March 1, Giuliani raised $63.5 million and retained $4 million in the bank, but McCain campaign chief Rick Davis is still helping the erstwhile opponent raise some money by sending out a fundraising email, Jonathan Martin reports, on Hizzoner's behalf. Most of the debt is owed to consultants and staff, as well as a whopping $65,000 to Giuliani's firm for back rent.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama is in Pittsburgh for a presidential forum sponsored by the Alliance for American Manufacturing before heading back to Washington for the annual meeting of the Associated Press, at whose luncheon he will deliver remarks. This evening, Obama attends the Philadelphia County Democratic Dinner in the state's largest city. Clinton will attend the same presidential forum and address the same Democratic dinner, holding a rally in Bristol, Pennsylvania in the meantime. McCain's only public event is addressing the AP's lunchtime gathering.