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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Obama's WI Numbers Look Good | Blog Home Page | A Tale Of Two Veeps »

Morning Thoughts: Does Age Matter?

Good Friday morning. With a massive 8,000-word opus on the life and times of Chris Matthews to devour and contemplate, we have our plans set for the weekend. The question is, has Tim Russert read it yet? Aside from the inner workings of NBC News, here's what else Washington is watching this morning:

-- What, is this August? The House and Senate are not in session today after a week of testifying and debate over the housing bill. President Bush is in Crawford, Texas before heading to a fundraiser for the Republican National Committee, just down the road at the Broken Spoke Ranch (Where do attendees stay when they travel to Crawford for a fundraiser? There can't be many hotels). Vice President Cheney will also spend his day raking in cash, first for Colorado Senate candidate and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, in Grand Junction, then for California Rep. Dan Lungren at a private residence in Wilton.

-- As nervous Democrats watch Hillary Clinton extend the Democratic primary, a few are focusing on McCain's weaknesses to soften him up before the Fall. Howard Dean, the DNC chairman, told reporters yesterday that it is McCain's age -- at 72, he would be the oldest president in history -- that is concerning voters, and that those voters bring it up independently at DNC-held focus groups. Dean said the DNC itself would not focus on McCain's age, but he did call McCain's ideas "old fashioned," The Fix notes, which could become a code word by November.

-- But with three different generations represented, as much as Dean and other Democrats might say age won't be an issue, how can it not be? McCain was born before World War II, while Clinton is a classic baby boomer and Obama is almost a Gen-Xer. Those differences create a very different outlook on the world, and it's something voters will consider. A septuagenarian will ask him or herself whether someone of the same age still possesses the ability and stamina to be president, while a forty-something may wonder whether someone his or her own age is ready to be president.

-- Education will also play a key role in determining for whom people will vote. Throughout the primaries, better educated voters have tended to favor Obama over Clinton. That's likely to stay the same in the general election, according to the last week or so of combined Gallup tracking polls. Obama leads McCain by a ten-point margin among those with postgraduate degrees, while McCain has a six-point head start among those who didn't go to college. People with experience in college or even with a college degree are split right down the middle between the two candidates.

-- Clinton has a ceiling, as many have suspected, and it's not too much over 50%. That doesn't mean she can't win a general election, but it does mean that some attitudes are set permanently against her. In recent months, though, the candidate has managed to swing new attitudes against her, many of those among women she once counted on to deliver the election her way, as the LA Times' Don Frederick writes. A new survey conducted of women only shows Clinton's approval rating dropping among female voters, with 26% saying they have a more negative opinion of Clinton since January and just 15% saying their views of her improved.

-- Beyond that long-term problem for Clinton, today could have the markings of a very bad day. Bill Clinton headed back out on the trail yesterday, with stops along the western border of Indiana, and chose a few audiences there on whom to unload his interpretation of his wife's misadventures in Bosnia. "Hillary, one time late at night when she was exhausted, misstated and immediately apologized for it, what happened to her in Bosnia in 1995. Did y'all see all that? Oh, they blew it up. Let me just tell you," the former president said in Boonville, Indiana, per ABC and NBC embeds. Never mind that the situation blew up in the first place, bringing it up again just doesn't help.

-- But Bill Clinton has a point: Hillary Clinton, rightly or wrongly, never gets the benefit of the doubt, thanks to both years of Republican-driven attacks and her own foot-in-mouth syndrome. Some people are looking for a reason to vote against John McCain or Barack Obama, but no one needs an excuse to vote against Clinton. Despite the distance by which she trails Obama, in pledged delegates and the popular vote, Clinton is seen as still in this contest. Every gaffe, though, puts another nail in the coffin.

-- Foreshadowing Of The Day: Speaking of a bad day, Clinton had one a few months back when a man held hostages in one of her New Hampshire satellite offices. Last night, though, Clinton's office in Terre Haute, Indiana, caught fire and was destroyed. No injuries or deaths were reported, and an investigation is underway, so we can safely make fun of the incident: Is it an example of a hot race for the Democratic nomination? Or simply an example of what opponents will call Clinton's willingness to do anything, even burn down a building, to win? We're sure the vast right-wing conspiracy is somehow involved.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton herself can't be to blame for the fire, though. She was a few states away, preparing for a big day in eastern Pennsylvania today. Clinton will visit a YMCA and stop by Drexel University for a town hall meeting, both in Philadelphia today. McCain is actually in the same state as the president, holding fundraisers in Dallas and Lubbock, Texas, before holding a rally later tonight in Lubbock. And Obama has town hall meetings scheduled for Columbus and Terre Haute, Indiana.