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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Andrews Making Surprise NJ Bid | Blog Home Page | Spinning ME Wheels »

MN Neck And Neck

In the increasingly bitter battle over a Senate seat both parties feel is rightfully theirs, Democrats and Republicans can each use a new poll as a platform to rake in more money for the two leading candidates. Polls in recent months have shown the fight between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and his likely Democratic rival, comedian Al Franken, a razor-thin contest, and both have raised millions for the November showdown.

The survey, conducted for the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates, was conducted 3/6-9 among 500 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Coleman and Franken were tested.

General Election Matchup
Coleman 46
Franken 40

In one of the last truly union-heavy states in the country (Franken actually hopes to represent the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party on the ballot), the difference could come from union households, depending on their turnout. Franken leads by nine points, 48%-39%, among voters living in a union households, while Coleman has a wider 12-point lead among those who live in non-union residences, 49%-37%.

Each camp's fundraising appeal will focus on how close the contest is likely to be, and on how personal the other side will make it. The poll has Franken within striking distance, as he has been for months, though Coleman retains a distinct advantage, both in the horse race and in money in the bank. Franken has outraised the incumbent several quarters in a row, and with fundraising numbers due in two weeks -- and likely to leak out sooner than that -- another Franken victory could start to worry national Republicans.

Coleman has worked hard to distance himself from President Bush and the Republican Party. But while the GOP convention, held in St. Paul, where Coleman served as mayor, will provide big fundraising opportunities for Coleman at the beginning of the final eight-week sprint to Election Day, is being associated with a national Republican Party whose brand name is in the dumps really what Coleman wants?

Franken still has to get through the June nominating convention, where he faces little competition after a top rival dropped out. Anticipating the challenge, Coleman used his announcement speech last week to light in to his likely Democratic foe, accusing him of being a divider. By the end of this race, though, it is likely that both candidates will be bloodied virtually beyond recognition.