After defeating Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth by about 8,000 votes in 2006, Democratic freshman Harry Mitchell could face a challenging re-election bid this year against any one of a number of potential Republican rivals. But a new poll out shows the former Mayor of Tempe could be in better position to keep his seat than Republicans would like, even with home state Senator John McCain heading the GOP ticket.

The poll, conducted by Bennett, Petts & Normington, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 400 likely voters between 3/9-11 for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Conducted for the American Hospital Association, the survey tested Mitchell, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert and former State Rep. Laura Knaperek, two of the four Republicans with a real chance to take on Mitchell in November.

General Election Matchup
Mitchell 50
Schweikert 24

Mitchell 49
Knaperek 26

While the district has a history of voting Republican, and gave President Bush two majorities when he ran in 2000 and 2004, voters in the Tempe- and Scottsdale-based district are generally wealthier and better educated than comparable districts in the state, and voters there seem to care more about fiscal issues than social issues. With his foundation as mayor of the district's second-largest city, Mitchell was able to cast himself as a moderate in contrast with the conservative firebrand Hayworth.

The poll did not test former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith, who now heads a cable communications association and serves on the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, or Jim Ogsbury, who until he moved back to Arizona to run for the seat was a lobbyist for prominent Arizona institutions and companies in Washington. Bitter Smith is still in the exploratory phase of her campaign.

The race promises to be costly for Mitchell no matter which Republican emerges victorious from the late primary. While Knaperek and Bitter Smith have not raised much money, Schweikert has $514,000 in the bank after a $250,000 personal loan. Ogsbury, who also gave himself $250,000, has $353,000 left over after the First Quarter. Mitchell has worked hard to build his war chest and had $1.12 million left over at the end of March.

Republicans think they will benefit most from McCain's coattails in the Fifth District, which is just east of downtown Phoenix. But those coattails will need to be long, the poll shows, as Mitchell remains popular and in good position to capture a second term.