Though Republicans are thrilled at the prospect of the chance to knock off two-term Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, polls have consistently shown a close race that is far from decided in the GOP's favor. A new poll out yesterday, in fact, shows Landrieu with her largest lead of the year, meaning that even though State Treasurer John Kennedy outraised Landrieu in the first three months of the year, the Republican still has a long way to go.

The survey, taken by Southern Media & Opinion Research, polled 600 likely voters between 3/26-4/9, an unusually long period of time for a single poll to be taken. Landrieu and Kennedy were tested, and the margin of error for a sample that size is +/- 4%.

General Election Matchup
Landrieu 50
Kennedy 38

Many believed that Landrieu would be in trouble this year given the dramatic demographic shifts Louisiana underwent after Hurricane Katrina. The daughter of former New Orleans Mayor Moon Landrieu, the last white mayor elected in the predominantly African American city, Landrieu has relied on large African American turnout in her two previous elections. But after Katrina, many of those voters fled to Arkansas or Texas, leading some to believe that Landrieu would have a tough fight for re-election.

The survey leaves plenty of questions open, though, especially given some suspect numbers deeper within it. President Bush has a 49% favorable rating versus 48% who say they have an unfavorable opinion of him, while Landrieu is hugely popular with a 70%-25% favorable to unfavorable rating. Junior Senator David Vitter, though, has an oddly favorable 52%-32% rating, despite his acknowledged involvement with the so-called D.C. Madam call-girl ring.

Landrieu is by no means safe for re-election, but this poll and her continued financial advantage over Kennedy has to make Democrats breathe at least a little more optimistic that they might go a second cycle without losing a Senate seat.