Voters in Iowa's Third Congressional District gave Barack Obama a huge boost in his caucus campaign. The Illinois Senator won six of the Des Moines-based district's twelve counties, including Polk County, from which a majority of the votes came; Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, won none of the twelve counties. Obama's theme of "change," it seemed, was in the air.

But the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Leonard Boswell, had thrown his support to Clinton (The state's three Democratic members of Congress each endorsed different presidential candidates), and as has happened in other primary states, that angered at least a few members of the state Democratic Party's liberal wing. After the endorsement, former State Rep. Ed Fallon, who had finished third in the 2006 gubernatorial primary and who seemed to be building a solid base for himself, decided to give the generally more conservative Boswell a credible primary challenger.

A new poll, though, shows that Fallon has some serious work to do in advance of the state's June 3 primary. The survey, taken by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV and KCRG-TV between 4/21-23, surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the district, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Boswell and Fallon were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom)
Boswell 52 / 55 / 49
Fallon 28 / 26 / 30

Boswell has a long history of surviving competitive general elections, and his district is one of the most evenly-divided in the nation. He first won election with 49%, beating out a well-funded Republican opponent in an open seat contest. Even as Democrats swept to victory nationwide last year, Boswell managed just a six-point win over State Senator Jeff Lamberti, who at the time served as the co-president in a divided upper chamber.

Whether the more liberal Fallon could hold the district in a normal year, even as moderate Boswell has faced tough races, is an open question. President Bush won a 270-vote majority in the district in 2004, while Al Gore beat him by 1,500 votes in 2000. And Fallon, unlike Boswell, is not a proven fundraiser; Boswell has raised $982,000 through the First Quarter and kept $840,000 in the bank; Fallon managed to pull in just $171,000 and spent most of it, leaving him only $19,000 in reserve.

But should Fallon pull out the upset in the primary, he would probably be the favorite heading into November. The likely GOP challenger, once a top aide to ex-Rep. Greg Ganske, jumped into the contest very late, and hadn't raised money of any significance through March. Then again, if national Republicans see the opportunity to steal a seat in central Iowa, likely to be a battleground state come November, they may pounce at the chance and make sure the Republican, Kim Schmett, is well-funded enough to become a credible challenger.

Obama's message of change may be compelling, and one Democrat -- nonprofit executive Donna Edwards, in Maryland -- has unseated an incumbent by closely mimicking Obama's style and substance. Longtime Rep. John Lewis, of Georgia, even avoided a primary challenge after switching his endorsement to Obama after initially backing Hillary Clinton. But the backlash against pro-Clinton super delegates does not appear to have reached fever pitch: At this point, though, Boswell remains a heavy favorite both in the primary and in the general election as he seeks his seventh term in Congress.