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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Strategy Memo: Wright Back At Ya | Blog Home Page | More Tight IN Polls »

Harkin Looks Safe In '08

Though he has run a series of close re-election bids during his four terms in the Senate, Republicans this year failed to field a strong challenger against Iowa Democrat Tom Harkin, and a new poll shows Harkin is a safe bet for re-election in November.

The survey, conducted by Research 2000, tested Harkin against Republicans former State Rep. George Eichhorn, businessman Steve Rathje and businessman and Navy veteran Chris Reed. Conducted for KCCI-TV and KCRG-TV between 4/21-23, the poll contacted 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The sample was made up of 33% Democrats, 30% Republicans and 37% independents and other parties.

General Election Matchups
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Harkin 57 / 86 / 17 / 63
Eichhorn 28 / 7 / 52 / 27

Harkin 58 / 87 / 17 / 64
Rathje 23 / 6 / 47 / 20

Harkin 59 / 87 / 17 / 68
Reed 20 / 6 / 43 / 14

54% of Iowa voters approve of the job Harkin is doing in the Senate. As chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee and as the fourth-ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, Harkin has been able to bring back a number of big projects and benefits to Iowa.

After Republican Reps. Tom Latham, a moderate, and Steve King, a conservative, declined to challenge Harkin, the incumbent Democrat's streak of beating House members will come to an end this year. After beating incumbent Roger Jepsen, a Republican, in 1984, Harkin defeated Republican House members who challenged him in 1990 (Tom Tauke), 1996 (Jim Ross Lightfoot) and 2002 (Greg Ganske).

Harkin is one of a number of Democrats in states President Bush won in either 2004 or 2000 in which the Republican Party failed to recruit a strong candidate. Like Harkin, Montana Senator Max Baucus and South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson will face under-funded, little-known challengers. Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor, who narrowly won his race in 2002, doesn't even have a Republican challenger, well-known or not.