FEC Reports -- The South
Day two, and part four, of our exhaustive look at some of the hot races we might be watching come October and November. In this installment, we'll take a look at Georgia, Alabama ...
Note that there are some great races we're going to be watching in North Carolina, but because of that state's pending primary, candidates there don't have to file until next week. We'll update those races when we get the numbers. And Florida, like Pennsylvania, has so many great races that we're saving a special update just for the Sunshine State.
Georgia 08: Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall, initially elected to replace now-Senator Saxby Chambliss in 2002, has won two of his three elections by barely more than a percentage point. Marshall's district, which stretches from the Atlanta suburbs south to just north of the Florida border, has a considerably Republican tilt, and that means Marshall will likely never be safe. So far this year, Marshall has pulled in $1.04 million and retained $1.19 million in the bank. He will likely face retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard, who through March had raised $577,000 and kept $403,000 in the bank. Marshall and fellow Democrat John Barrow were two of Republicans' top targets in 2006, and that trend is going to continue throughout both men's Congressional career, though this year Barrow seems to have avoided a top challenger.
Alabama 02: Republican Rep. Terry Everett's retirement after eight terms in the House left several candidates scrambling for a seat that ordinarily votes heavily Republican. Democrats recruited Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright and released a poll showing him leading over prominent Republicans in the race, but fundraising records show Bright has catching up to do. In the month he's been running, Bright raised just $54,000 and has only $46,000 in the bank. Republicans Jay Love, a state Representative, and Harri Anne Smith, a state Senator, are seen as the GOP frontrunners; Love raised $434,000 after loaning himself $300,000, and he retains $276,000 in the bank. Smith pulled in $268,000 and kept $139,000 in the bank, as both candidates are running television ads. Dentist Craig Schmidtke raised $274,000 and spent all but $13,000 of it, and television executive David Woods raised $351,000 with $308,000 left over, after writing himself a $250,000 check. The race could be competitive, and watch for national Democrats to come in with guns blazing if Bright continues to lag in the fundraising department.
Alabama 05: North of Everett's district, Rep. Bud Cramer is one of just a few Democrats to announce his retirement from Congress after his party took control. Cramer, a Southern Democrat, could be difficult for the party to replace, but it helps a lot that Republicans have failed to recruit their own strong candidate. State Senator Parker Griffith is likely to be the Democratic standard-bearer; he raised $115,000 in his first few weeks in the race and retains $112,000 for future use. Attorney Ray McKee, who is also a former rocket scientist, is the only Republican raising any money in the seat, though he trails by a mile; through March, he had raised just $64,000 and kept $22,000 on hand.
Mississippi 01: When Senator Roger Wicker was elevated from the House following Trent Lott's retirement, few expected a competitive race to replace him. But recent polls have shown Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, a Democrat, running close to Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, the district's Republican nominee, and the NRCC is spending heavily in the district. Through April 2, when the district's pre-runoff reports were due, both candidates had depleted their war chests. Childers had just $7,600 in the bank after spending the vast majority of the $283,000 he's raised, while Davis kept just $59,000 in the bank after dishing out most of the $636,000 he's raised so far. Post-runoff reports will tell us more, but it is likely that Democrat Childers is staying competitive even though he's being vastly outspent. That could spell big trouble for Republicans down the line.
Louisiana 06: Another special election will be held in just a few weeks to replace retired Rep. Richard Baker, whose Baton Rouge-based seat has been getting significant national attention already. Democrat Don Cazayoux, a state Representatitive, is locked in a tight contest with former state legislator Woody Jenkins, a conservative Republican. Through the middle of March, Cazayoux had raised $565,000 and kept $110,000 in the bank, while Jenkins had raised $291,000 and held just $18,000 in reserve. Both national parties are spending heavily in advance of the special election, and the candidate who wins is likely to be the favorite come November. Like in Mississippi, most of our information will come after May 3, when the winner is decided and new filings become public.


