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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Morning Thoughts: Obama's Debate Hangover | Blog Home Page | FEC Reports -- Mid-Atlantic »

FEC Reports -- The Northeast

With 435 races to at least glance over, the day House candidates' reports are due to the Federal Election Commission provides political junkies everywhere with what seems like an endless stream of information to take in. That information would be truly endless if we didn't break it up in some way. So here's our first manageable bite, as we take a quick look at the House races in the Northeast that could prove appealing come September and October.

As always, don't forget that money isn't everything, but along with poll numbers, candidate interviews and other factors, it's one thing we'll consider when we debut our races to watch list later this summer. For now, races we're keeping an eye on:

New Hampshire 01: Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter wasn't even supposed to be in Congress this year after surprising national and Granite State Democrats by upsetting Democratic State House leader Jim Craig in the primary last year. But Shea-Porter surprised incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley, winning election in an extremely marginal district by just 5,000 votes after being outspent more than three-to-one. This year, Shea-Porter has already raised more than $662,000 and through the end of March retained $545,000 in the bank. Bradley, running for his old seat, is competitive, having raised $566,000 and keeping $516,000 in reserve. He will face former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, who Bradley beat in his initial 2002 primary race, and who has raised $231,000 with $203,000 on hand, in the state's September primary.

New York 13: Republican Rep. Vito Fossella, the last Republican to represent any part of New York City, has won relatively easy re-election battles in recent years, but this time around he could find himself in trouble. Fossella has outraised his top Democratic challenger by a wide margin, but he's also spent a lot of that money. Through March, Fossella pulled in $851,000 and had only $248,000 in the bank. New York City Councilmember Domenic Recchia has raised $350,000 for his bid so far and retained $325,000 after March 31. Fossella spent more than $25,000 on polling with the very reputable Public Opinion Strategies this quarter, so if he starts hauling in a lot more money and getting aggressive, one could surmise that the poll held at least some bad news that scared the five-term incumbent.

New York 25: Longtime Republican Rep. Jim Walsh's departure from Congress could signal trouble for Republicans as they scramble to find a candidate to fill the seat. 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Maffei, a former Congressional staffer who came surprisingly close to beating Walsh that year, has already raised a whopping $853,000 for his bid in the Syracuse-based district, and retains $675,000 after March. Three serious Republican candidates -- Assemblyman Bob Oaks, Manilus Village Trustee Paul Serafin and former Onondaga County legislature chair Dale Sweetland -- are in the race, but none have filed with the FEC yet. If one of them doesn't raise big bucks, Maffei is going to pick up another seat for Democrats, a party that did very well in upstate New York.

New York 26: Another retirement that caught Republicans by surprise came when Rep. Tom Reynolds told constituents he would not stand for re-election after a tighter than expected contest in 2006 and a disappointing stint as NRCC chairman. The Democratic primary could be heavily contested, as Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul is considering a bid while two-time nominee Jack Davis and Iraq war veteran Jon Powers are already in the race. Powers has raised $598,000 through March, with $402,000 left in the bank, while Davis has yet to begin raising money -- in his bids against Reynolds in 2004 and 2006, Davis largely self-funded. Attorney Alice Kryzan rounds out the field with $287,000 raised and $206,000 left in the bank. On the Republican side, the only candidate so far could find himself in early hot water. Iraq war veteran David Bellavia most recently won notoriety when he referred to Barack Obama as Tiger Woods, which some saw as a racially-tinged slight, while introducing John McCain at a rally last week in Washington.

Connecticut 02: After narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Rob Simmons in one of the nation's closest contests, freshman Democrat Joe Courtney has made himself an expert at the fundraising game, pulling in $1.46 million through March. He retains $1.19 million in the bank, and he will likely face Sean Sullivan, who commanded a major naval facility in the eastern Connecticut-based district, which includes New London and Norwich. Sullivan was a highly-touted recruit who Republicans loved, and they saw an early chance to steal back a seat. But his fundraising has been lacking; he pulled in $230,000 through March and held just $129,000 cash on hand. If his fundraising picks up, Sullivan could be a very strong contender, but if not, Courtney will be a safe bet for re-election.

Connecticut 05: In 2006, the incumbent member of Congress in the district that stretches from the Hartford suburbs to the New York border in the west lost to a state Senator. This year, Rep. Chris Murphy, who outpaced Republican Nancy Johnson two years ago, faces another state Senator, David Cappiello, who could give the freshman a run for his money. But Murphy, who is just 34 years old, is intent on keeping his job for a long time. Murphy has already raised $1.79 million and retains $1.54 million for his bid, and Cappiello, who Republicans say could be one of their strongest challengers, has raised $654,000 through March. Cappiello retains $420,000 in the bank, a possibly worryingly high burn-rate.

Check back later today for our look at the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic region.