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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Reports -- Mid-Atlantic | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: Moving On »

FEC Reports -- Pennsylvania

Part three in our series (which may take a few days, given the amount of notable races to watch) of interesting House races to watch in key states this year, based mostly on First Quarter FEC reports. In this edition, we were going to tackle several states, but with five hot races in Pennsylvania, we decided the Keystone State would be enough for one post:

Pennsylvania 04: Freshman Democrat Jason Altmire won a surprising upset over Republican Melissa Hart in this suburban Pittsburgh district in 2006, taking 52% to Hart's 48% even though he was outspent two to one. Altmire's re-election bid may be difficult this year; his district is likely to favor John McCain over either of the Democratic candidates. But he's already surpassed his total from 2006, raising $1.61 million through April 2 -- the filing deadline is put off for two days because of the state's April 22 primary -- and keeping $1.3 million in the bank. Hart, seeking her old job back, has raised $529,000 and kept $393,000 on hand through the same period. At the moment, Altmire should be favored, but not by much.

Pennsylvania 06: Republican Jim Gerlach, who represents the Philadelphia exurbs and into the middle of the state, has won each of his three terms with no more than 51% of the vote. As long as he's a member of Congress, his life will not be easy come Election Day. Gerlach has raised $1.51 million so far, and is keeping $714,000 on hand after paying off a large campaign debt from last cycle. But in his previous three terms, Gerlach has faced a strong Democratic opponent who has spent as much, if not more, than he has. This year, Democrats have recruited Bob Roggio, a retired businessman who served as chair of his local party and is unlikely to be anywhere nearly as strong as 2004 and 2006 nominee Lois Murphy. Roggio has raised $205,000 and has $168,000 in the bank. Without a major infusion of funds for Roggio, Gerlach could finally get his big win. But if the race is still close even with an under-funded challenger, look for Democrats to come after Gerlach again, with guns blazing.

Pennsylvania 10: After being accused of choking his mistress, Republican Don Sherwood stood little chance of keeping his seat in 2006, and Democrat Chris Carney beat him handily. But in a heavily Republican district, Carney will face a challenge this year from either Chris Hackett or Dan Meuser, two business executives who are spending heavily in advance of the state's primary next week. Carney has raised $1.28 million through April 2 with $966,000 in the bank, and both Republicans are supplementing their fundraising by spending their own money. Hackett has raised $931,000, more than half of it from his own check book, and Meuser is up to $1.47 million raised, almost two-thirds of that his own. Hackett has only $174,000 left, while Meuser is slightly below $70,000 on hand. Expect the winner of the primary to reinvest in his own campaign and potentially trip the millionaire's amendment, allowing Carney to raise even more money.

Pennsylvania 11: Longtime Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski, who has served in Congress since 1984, is not used to facing spirited challengers. After his initial election, he's won every re-election bid since with more than two-thirds of the vote, save once, when he beat Scranton Mayor Lou Barletta in 2002 by a 56%-42% margin. This year, Barletta, an anti-immigration activist who has gained national attention from talking heads like Lou Dobbs and Sean Hannity, is running again, and Republicans think they have another real chance at knocking off the incumbent. Kanjorski is well aware of Republican plans and has raised just under $1.09 million for his bid, keeping $1.83 million on hand. Barletta lags far behind, with $184,000 raised and $154,000 on hand through April 2. But if anti-immigration activists play anywhere, it will be in the northeastern district, which also includes Wilkes-Barre, and they could make this race competitive.

Pennsylvania 15: Just north of Philadelphia, moderate Rep. Charlie Dent is eyeing his third term warily, given that he is just one of about a half-dozen Republicans to represent a district that voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry. Dent is planning for a tough race, having raised $969,000 through April 2 and retaining $615,000 for future spending. His Democratic challenger, Sam Bennett, has raised $313,000 and kept $182,000 in the bank. Those numbers aren't overly impressive, and Bennett might not be the best Democrats can do: He ran and lost races for mayor of Allentown in both 2001 and 2005. But the NRCC has included Bennett in releases targeting strong Democratic challengers before, signaling that they, too, must be nervous. If the DCCC runs out of places to spend money, they could come looking at Dent this year.