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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Reports -- Florida | Blog Home Page | This Week On PN Radio »

FEC Reports -- Ohio Valley

For the sixth edition of our FEC roundup, it's off to the Ohio Valley, most of which are in the state of Ohio itself, as well as a lone race in West Virginia. Are Republicans looking at another region that could bear several losses?

Ohio 01: Republican Steve Chabot was forced to spend some $3 million in 2006 to defend his Cincinnati-based seat, which President Bush carried by just two points in 2004. In a tough year for Republicans, Chabot doubled Bush's margin to win his 7th term in office. This year Chabot will face another tough challenge, this time by highly-touted Democratic recruit, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. At the end of the 1st quarter, Chabot holds a 2-to-1 advantage in cash-on-hand, with $1.13 million in the bank. Driehaus has yet to spend much of the $700,000 he's raised so far. The DCCC has spent big here in previous attempts to oust Chabot, and that is likely to occur again with Driehaus a member of its Red-to-Blue program.

Ohio 02: In a district Bush carried with 64% in 2004, Republican Jean Schmidt won her first general election in 2006 by only 2,500 votes against Victoria Wulsin, after pulling out a five point victory in the GOP primary. Wulsin is challenging Schmidt again this year, and the Democrat has outraised, outspent and has more cash in the bank than the incumbent. Wulsin has pulled in $770,000, spent $600,000, and has $212,000 cash-on-hand. Schmidt, meanwhile, has raised $565,000, spent $400,000, and has $175,000 in the bank, but she's carrying more than $275,000 in debt. Schmidt spent big in the primary this year and still only won 57% of the vote. She outspent Wulsin 2-to-1 in 2006 and may need to do the same this year to hold on to her seat, despite the Republican tilt of the district.

Ohio 15: This open seat is up for grabs, as Republican Steve Stivers and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy battle to replace retiring GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce. Kilroy came just 1,000 votes away from upsetting Pryce in 2006, despite being outspent by about $2 million. Likewise, Bush's eight-point victory over Al Gore in 2000 shrunk to just more than a 2,000-vote margin over John Kerry in 2004. Both candidates are in pretty good shape, financially, though because Kilroy has been in the race much longer, she has the upper hand in fundraising. Kilroy reported having $945,000 in the bank after raising $1.21 million. Stivers has raised $790,000 and has $600,000 in the bank. Both raised close to $300,000 between mid-February and the end of March.

Ohio 16: The long tenure of GOP Rep. Ralph Regula is coming to an end, and replacing him will be one of two state senators, Democrat John Boccieri or Republican Kirk Schuring. The edge should go to Schuring due to the Republican lean of the district, though Regula was held below 60% of the vote in 2006 for the first time since his initial election in 1972, and Governor Ted Strickland and Senator Sherrod Brown, both Democrats, carried Stark County by healthy margins. At the end of the 1st quarter, Boccieri has outraised Schuring by $200,000, though he's been in the race longer. Schuring's raised $490,000 and has $100,000 in the bank, while Boccieri has pulled in $690,000 with $250,000 in the bank.

West Virginia 02: In 2006, Republican Shelley Moore Capito matched her 2004 winning percentage, despite some tough questions she had to answer because of her seat on the congressional page board. She outspent her Democratic opponent by close to 4-to-1 that year, and this year she has so far outraised Sen. Robert Byrd's longtime aide, Anne Barth, by more than 3-to-1. Capito also has about three times as much cash on hand, with $925,000 to Barth's $305,000. While Byrd should help Barth's fundraising in the coming months, Capito's overall moderate record has helped her remain strong in the heavily Democratic Kanawha County, which she even won in 2006.

-- Kyle Trygstad