FEC Reports -- Northern Mississippi Valley
The northern Rocky Mountain and Plains states, stretching from Idaho to Montana and the Dakotas, won't offer much in the way of interesting House races this year as most incumbents are going to win easily. But circling back to the upper Mississippi Valley, both parties have opportunities in our twelfth installment of a look at interesting FEC reports:
-- Minnesota 01: After being kicked out of a rally for President Bush in 2004, Democrat Tim Walz decided to run for Congress and pulled off a surprise upset of GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht. The district, which takes up the entire southern border of the state, voted narrowly for President Bush twice, but Walz has raised $1.6 million to keep his seat and retains just over $1 million in the bank. His main opponents have much smaller bank accounts after battling for the GOP nod; Republican activist Brian Davis, a doctor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester who won the party's nomination, has raised $222,000 and still has $50,000 in the bank, while State Senator Dick Day has raised $226,000 and retained just $72,000. They will face each other in the primary in September. The winner will face a steep climb against Walz in November, but the Republican National Convention could provide the victor a good opportunity to raise a lot of money.
-- Minnesota 03: Retiring Republican Jim Ramstad, who represents the northern, western and southern suburbs of Minneapolis, leaves a toss-up seat open to challenge this year. Democrats had recruited State Senator Terri Bonoff, but a convention victory for newcomer Ashwin Madia, a Democratic activist, and Bonoff's concession left Minnesota political watchers shocked. Madia has raised $362,000 through the end of march, more than $100,000 less than Bonoff, and retained $190,000 in the bank. He will face Republican State Rep. Erik Paulsen, who has a much bigger war chest of $688,000 after raising a total of $772,000. The district could be trending Democratic, but Paulsen is said to be a good candidate and his fundraising head start could be tough for Madia to overcome.
-- Minnesota 06: One of just thirteen Republican freshmen elected in 2006, Michelle Bachmann won an eight-point victory over children's advocate Patty Wetterling two years ago. Wetterling may not have been the best candidate against Bachmann, and this year Democrats are excited for their original first choice to take on the incumbent, former State Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, who raised $260,000 through March and has about $102,000 in the bank. Attorney Bob Olson is also running, and he raised $268,000 through the same period while keeping $112,000 on hand. Bachmann has pulled in $1.5 million so far and retains $1 million for later. Bachmann is a heavy favorite, but in a wave election she could face a touch race.
-- Iowa 03: One of the top-ranking Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee, Democrat Leonard Boswell has faced some tough re-election fights in his Des Moines-based district. This year, his challenge comes from the left, as one-time State Rep. Ed Fallon, who finished third in the gubernatorial primary in 2006, is making a bid arguing that Boswell is not liberal enough. Ahead of the June 3 primary, Boswell has pulled in $982,000 and kept $841,000 on hand, while Fallon has raised $171,000 and spent all but $19,700. Former Hill staffer Kim Schmett will be the Republican nominee, but he's raised virtually no money yet. Most likely, this race will be decided in the primary.
-- Missouri 06: Though Republican Sam Graves has had a generally easy time winning re-election, he hasn't faced very many well-financed challengers in his suburban and exurban Kansas City district. This year, that changes. While Graves has raised an impressive $1.57 million and still has $1.13 million in the bank, former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes finished the quarter with $1.4 million raised and $954,000 left over. President Bush won the seat by fifteen points in 2004, but national Democrats are excited at the prospect that Barnes presents. Graves' strong fundraising performance shows he's not taking the race for granted. National Democrats could spend a significant amount of money on the seat after finally convincing Barnes, whom they've been chasing for years, to make a bid.
-- Missouri 09: When Republican Kenny Hulshof decided to make a run for governor, strong candidates on both sides started scrambling to replace him in his northeast Missouri district. Four top candidates on each side are running for the seat, and at the moment State Reps. Bob Onder, a Republican, and Judith Baker, a Democrat, are leading the pack with $370,000 and $216,000 raised, respectively. Onder gave his campaign $250,000, and he retains $369,000 on hand, while Baker has $188,000 left over. Democrats are also excited about former State House Speaker Robert Gaw, who raised $110,000 and still has $102,000 left over. Republicans are also eying former State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer, State Rep. Danie Moore and former professional football player and Mizzou star Brock Olivo. None of the top Republicans have raised more than $100,000.


