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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Reports -- The Northeast | Blog Home Page | FEC Reports -- Pennsylvania »

FEC Reports -- Mid-Atlantic

Part two in the increasingly massive series of House races to watch focuses on New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia, where open seats could give Democrats some big gains. The races to watch over the next few months:

New Jersey 03: Republican Rep. Jim Saxton is retiring this year, opening up what is likely to be a closely contested race for the southern district that stretches from just north of Camden east to the seacoast. Democrats got their top recruit in State Senator John Adler, who has already raised $629,000 and has a war chest of $587,000 remaining. Jack Kelly, an Ocean County Freeholder, and Chris Myers, a Medford Township councilmember, are fighting for the Republican nod; Kelly has raised $306,000 and retains $281,000, while Myers pulled in $334,000 and kept $288,000 in the bank. George Bush won the district narrowly in 2004, though Al Gore won it by a wider margin in 2000, and Democrats clearly plan to make the seat a target.

New Jersey 07: While Saxton's retirement was not a complete surprise, Republican Mike Ferguson's decision to follow suit did come as a shock. Two potentially strong Republican candidates, Leonard Lance, the state Senate Majority Leader, and Kate Whitman, daughter of former Governor Christine Todd Whitman, are raising big bucks early; Lance has raised $294,000 with $255,000 still on hand, while Whitman has pulled in $444,000, keeping $307,000 left in the bank. The winner of the primary will face Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender, who came within 3,000 votes of beating Ferguson in 2006. Stender has raised $606,000 so far this year and has $502,000 remaining in the bank.

Maryland 01: Some of the biggest news of the cycle so far happened in Maryland earlier this year when Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrest lost his battle for renomination in his district along the Chesapeake Bay to State Senator Andy Harris, a more conservative politician who had backing from the Club for Growth. Gilchrest will likely not endorse Harris, and though the district voted overwhelmingly for President Bush in both his races, some Democrats think Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil could be the right candidate at the right time. Kratovil has raised $431,000 and retains $214,000 in the bank, while Harris spent much of the $1.5 million he's already raised in the primary. Harris has $205,000 left over. It will probably take a very favorable year for Democrats, but Kratovil will have at least some money to take advantage should another pro-Democratic wave develop.

Virginia 10: After facing a spirited challenger in 2006, some Democrats think Republican Frank Wolf could be the next Virginia Republican to fall to an increasing Democratic wave. Wolf represents an exurban Washington district, and Georgetown University Professor Judy Feder held him to 57% of the vote in 2006. Though Feder didn't come as close as other Democratic near-misses, she clearly scared the incumbent, who is raising significant money as he prepares for a rematch in 2008. Wolf has raised $1.05 million so far this year and has $715,000 in reserve. Feder, a former Clinton Administration official, has $700,000 in the bank after raising $900,000, keeping relatively strong pace with the incumbent. Wolf's re-election bids are likely to get more difficult as more Democrats move into his district, but it will still take a big Democratic tsunami to unseat the 14-term incumbent.

Virginia 11: With the departure of Rep. Tom Davis, Republican chances to keep this suburban Washington seat took a serious hit. But Davis worked hard to clear the field for business executive Keith Fimian, who has raised an impressive $840,000 through March 31. Fimian will face either former Rep. Leslie Byrne, who lost to Davis in 1994, or Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly. Byrne has raised $346,000 through March, while Connolly, who leads the primary by wide margins in polls taken for his campaign, raised more than $500,000 in the First Quarter and maintains $424,000 in the bank. Few areas in the country have changed as rapidly as Northern Virginia, and the Democratic nominee, who will be chosen in June, will likely have the leg up in November.