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« FEC Reports -- The South | Blog Home Page | FEC Reports -- Ohio Valley »

FEC Reports -- Florida

Part five in our series inspecting top House races we'll be watching come October and November. We head down to the Sunshine State, where Democrats feel great about their chances and Republicans are playing serious defense. But the GOP brand is in better shape in Florida than elsewhere, and Democrats have their work cut out for them. Onto our favorite hot and sunny contests:

Florida 08: Four-term Republican Ric Keller, who represents parts of Orlando and its suburbs, beat a tough Democratic challenger in his first election, in 2000, and another difficult challenger, consultant Charlie Stuart, by a narrow 53%-46% margin in 2006. Stuart, who was reasonably well-funded two years ago, is back and Democrats have Keller in their sights. Not the most prodigious of fundraisers, Keller raised $742,000 through March and kept $735,000 in reserve. Stuart has $316,000 in the bank after raising $415,000 so far this cycle. But his path to unseating Keller is not free of obstacles. In the August 26 primary, Stuart is going to have to get past attorney Mike Smith, who has raised $443,000 so far this year and still has $295,000 in the bank. Another attorney, Todd Long, has outspent both his fellow Democrats, having raised $192,000 and retaining just $17,000 in the bank.

Florida 13: In 2006, Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings, two wealthy businesspeople running in a Sarasota- and Bradenton-based district on the Gulf Coast of the panhandle, spent a combined $11 million on one House seat. Buchanan, who spent $8 million of that amount, won by a total of just under 400 votes, a margin so narrow that a House panel ended up investigating. This year, Jennings wants revenge; she raised $897,000 through the first quarter and retained $483,000 in the bank. Buchanan pulled in $2.34 million and held reserves of $1.12 million. Those seem like high burn-rates, but both candidates spent money on the court costs associated with the previous election. Either way, both candidates will be extraordinarily well-funded come November, and while Buchanan has an added advantage of incumbency, he will by no means have an easy time winning re-election.

Florida 16: The district that runs from the Atlantic Ocean across the middle of the panhandle likely cost Republicans more House seats last year than any other. Until felled by a scandal involving House pages, Republican Mark Foley held the seat. Now, Democrat Tim Mahoney is running for re-election with a war chest of just over $1 million, having already raised $2.13 million this cycle. He will face either retired businessman Hal Valeche, who serves on a local city council, or Tom Rooney, a recruit Republicans have been trying to score for various races for years. Valeche has raised $737,000 and put $250,000 of his own money into the race already, retaining $589,000 for later, while Rooney, whose parents own the Pittsburgh Steelers, has raised $691,000 and has $442,000 cash on hand.

Florida 18: The first of three heavily Cuban American districts in Southern Florida, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has cruised to re-election in her nine full terms -- she didn't even face an opponent between 1994 and 2000. But there is a huge generational gap among Cuban Americans. Older voters tend to favor Republicans who talk tough about Fidel Castro, while younger voters lean more toward Democrats. This year, Democrats are excited about businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who has raised $321,000 so far this year and still has $300,000 in the bank. Ros-Lehtinen has a whopping $1.72 million cash on hand after raising $880,000 so far this cycle. While Democrats are excited about their chances in all three races, it's going to take a big upheaval to knock out Ros-Lehtinen.

Florida 21: Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart's district, nearly 70% Hispanic, is just north of Ros-Lehtinen's and includes the suburb of Hialeah. In eight terms in Congress, Diaz-Balart has faced a total of two opponents, including one candidate who ran as a Libertarian in 2004 and as a Democrat in 2006. This year, Democrats have recruited Raul Martinez, a former mayor of Hialeah, and the party thinks they might have a shot at the incumbent. Diaz-Balart has raised $1.07 million so far this year and had $1.45 million left in the bank after March, FEC reports showed. Martinez isn't falling too far behind, though. So far, the former mayor has raised $616,000 and kept $592,000 in the bank.

Florida 25: The only one of the three Cuban American Republicans representing Florida not born in Havana, Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln's younger brother, could also face a tough battle in the Fall. Mario's district touches the western edge of both Lincoln's and Ros-Lehtinen's and includes much of the southern tip of the panhandle. Seeking his third term, Mario Diaz-Balart has amassed a war chest of $747,000 after raising $719,000 through the end of March. Miami-Dade County Democratic Party chairman Joe Garcia, running against the incumbent Republican, has pulled in $331,000 and still has $316,000 left over. A Democratic win in South Florida may not come this year, but it will likely happen soon, given the changing attitudes of a generation more friendly to the party.