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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Reports -- Western Great Lakes | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: Now What? »

FEC Reports -- Eastern Great Lakes

Chapter eleven in our look at FEC reports from around the country takes us to one state where Democrats had a very good year in 2006 and one they hope to have a good year in 2008. Three Democrats stole GOP-held seats in Indiana, and this year two of the party's top targets are in neighboring Michigan. (We know Indiana only barely touches Lake Michigan, but just go with it, we're running out of names) The races that we're watching:

Michigan 07: Three different members of Congress, all Republicans, have held the south-central district in the past three terms. After Rep. Nick Smith retired, moderate Republican Joe Schwarz beat a crowded field of conservatives and served one term starting in 2007, before the third-place finisher from 2006, Tim Walberg, came roaring back to beat Schwarz in a primary with significant help from the Club for Growth. Now, Democrats think Walberg is too conservative for the district, and State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer is making a run to be the fourth member in four terms from the Battle Creek area. Schauer has outraised Walberg, pulling in $904,000 and keeping $751,000 on hand, while the incumbent raised $829,000 through March and still has $604,000 left over.

Michigan 09: Closer to Detroit, eight-term Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg faced an unexpectedly tough challenge in 2006, giving Democrats the hint that the right candidate might knock him off in a district that gave President Bush just 51% of the vote in two consecutive elections. The party recruited former state lottery commissioner Gary Peters to take on Knollenberg in the district just north of Detroit, which includes Pontiac, and it turns out to have been a wise financial move. Peters raised $750,000 when the First Quarter tallies were finished, and ended the quarter with $644,000 in the bank. Knollenberg will be better financed than his colleague Walberg, though; after March, he had $1.33 million cash on hand after raising $1.85 million so far, more than he spent during the entire 2004 campaign.

Indiana 02: Joe Donnelly, the candidate thought to have the longest shot to knock off an incumbent of any of the three Indiana Democratic challengers in 2006, still pulled out a win that year, beating Republican Rep. Chris Chocola. Donnelly will defend his seat, based along the state's northern border with Michigan and including South Bend south to Kokomo, from businessman Luke Puckett, who just recently jumped in the race. Because Indiana's primary is coming up on May 13, candidates don't have to file until tonight at midnight. We'll update the numbers when they're available, but through the end of December Donnelly raised $1.1 million and has kept $713,000 in the bank.

Indiana 07: Based in Indianapolis, the Seventh District came open late last year with the passing of Rep. Julia Carson, and last month Carson's grandson Andre kept the seat in Democratic hands. But Carson could face a hurdle in the May 13 primary, when he faces a well-funded challenger who has been climbing in recent polls. Democrat Woody Myers, the former state health commissioner, has raised and spent $705,000 through March 31, including $550,000 of his own money, virtually even with Carson's $740,000 raised. Carson still had $93,000 in the bank as of the first day in April, and he's likely increased that number since coming to Washington. Republicans were attracted to State Rep. Jon Elrod as a candidate, but Elrod only raised $192,000 for the special election, leaving some in the GOP disappointed.

Indiana 09: In baseball, the third game of a three-game split series is called the rubber match. In Indiana's Ninth District, Democratic Rep. Baron Hill will face trucking executive Mike Sodrel a fourth consecutive time, and we're not sure what that's called. Hill has won twice, in 2002 and 2006, while Sodrel took the seat in 2004. Hill had raised $1.13 million through the end of the year and kept $862,000 on hand, while Sodrel has yet to file his paperwork. When these two candidates report tonight, we'll be sure to update the figures in what is going to be another of the great races of 2008. There is little love lost between the old foes, and the race promises to be bitter and expensive.