FEC Reports -- Dust Bowl
Our seventh installment in a comprehensive look at House races we'll be paying attention to heads to an amalgamation of the New South, in Texas, the classic Dust Bowl of Oklahoma (Well, there aren't any good races in Oklahoma this year, but it's right in the middle) and a piece of the Great Plains, in Kansas, where Republicans might actually have reason to be optimistic. Our five races to watch, from the Rio Grande to the amber waves of grain:
Texas 07: Representing a district on the west side of Houston, Republican John Culberson is a likely bet for re-election. The district, which descends from the first seat George H.W. Bush represented in the House, voted heavily for his son, and Culberson has generally been re-elected by wide margins. But having outspend his opponent about six-to-one in 2006, Culberson won 59% of the vote, a surprisingly weak margin. Now, Culberson has raised $589,000 and has only $270,000 on hand, while his opponent, Democratic businessman Michael Skelly, has raised an impressive $853,000 and retains $666,000 in the bank. An early December poll conducted for Skelly showed him trailing by 19 points, and Culberson remains a strong favorite to keep his seat. But with so much money in the bank, Skelly could at least make life uncomfortable for the incumbent.
Texas 22: It may have been easy running against Rep. Tom DeLay, but Democrat Nick Lampson didn't get to do so. Instead, in 2006, Lampson ran against a write-in candidate with a difficult last name to spell and only won by ten points. Republicans got their favored candidate this year, former John Cornyn chief of staff Pete Olson, when he beat out that hard-to-spell candidate, Shelley Sekula Gibbs, in a runoff. Olson's treasury was drained to just $127,000 through the end of March (It's probably lower now, after the early April runoff) but he has plenty of time to raise more, and Olson has shown promise, already pulling in a total of $893,000, aided by $175,000 from his own pocket. Lampson will have the financial edge, though, having already banked about $1.35 million and with just over $1 million on hand. Still, Olson has one of the strongest shots of any Republican to pick up a Democratic-held seat.
Texas 23: One of the geographically biggest Congressional districts in the country, the Twenty Third District stretches from the El Paso suburbs along the Rio Grande and the U.S.-Mexican border. Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former member of Congress who once lost his seat, beat out Republican Henry Bonilla in a December runoff in 2006. Rodriguez has raised $1.6 million this cycle, part of which includes money spent on the runoff, and retained $932,000 through March. His leading opponent, Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, raised $272,000 and spent much of it to end the quarter with just $60,000 in the bank. Larson will have to win in a 65% Hispanic district, but one that gave President Bush a 57%-43% majority in 2004. That's a tall order, but if Larson's fundraising picks up, Rodriguez could face a tough fight.
Kansas 02: Nancy Boyda provided one of the biggest surprises of the 2006 Democratic landslide when she unseated Rep. Jim Ryun, a well-known and well-funded Republican, by a 51%-47% margin. Despite her refusal to allow the DCCC to aid her fundraising efforts, Boyda has raised an impressive $992,000 and kept $811,000 in the bank. Ryun, not content to let his old seat go, is running again in the eastern district, which includes Manhattan and Topeka, and he's raised an even better $1.2 million so far, with $459,000 in the bank. Ryun has spent so much because he first has to get by State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, a more moderate Republican who has raised $622,000 and kept $486,000 on hand. The winner of the August 5 Republican primary, though, will have an excellent shot against Boyda in a district that gave President Bush a 20-point margin in 2004 and is likely to do the same for John McCain.
Kansas 03: A perpetual GOP target, the Kansas City-based Third District is home to Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat who has survived tight battle after tight battle until 2006, when he won by a two-to-one margin. Moore will likely face State Senator Nick Jordan this year, a Republican who has raised $388,000 and still has $307,000 in the bank. He'll have to do better than that to oust Moore, who has hauled in $982,000 and kept $889,000 on hand. If Republicans somehow find themselves in better financial position down the road, be it this year or next cycle, Moore will once again be on the target list. But if he can duplicate his performance from 2006 over a much stronger challenger, Moore may be in a position to own the seat for life.


