A poll conducted for Democratic State Rep. Don Cazayoux looks to confirm Republicans' biggest worries, that Cazayoux will make a serious play for the front-runner mantle in his central Louisiana district in advance of next month's special election to replace retired Republican Rep. Richard Baker. National Republicans have made noise recently that Woody Jenkins, the Republican nominee to replace Baker, could prove an even more flawed candidate than businessman Jim Oberweis did in losing an Illinois special election last month.

The poll, conducted by the well-respected firm Anzalone-Liszt Research, surveyed 500 voters likely to cast ballots in the May 3 special election for a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.5%. Cazayoux and Jenkins were tested.

General Election Matchup
Cazayoux 49
Jenkins 44

In a district that gave President Bush wide margins in both elections, Republicans don't have a lot to be optimistic about lately. First, the Democrat far outraised the Republican; through the pre-primary reporting period, on March 16, Cazayoux held $110,000 in reserve while Jenkins had just $18,000 cash on hand.

Second, many people have said inflated turnout from the presidential primary won't help Democrats in November. That was before Democrats outpaced Republicans in the special election runoff, where 34,000 people voted for either Cazayoux or State Rep. Michael Jackson and just 24,000 chose between Jenkins and businesswoman Laurinda Calongne.

The general special election between Jenkins and Cazayoux, to replace Baker, takes place on May 3. The four candidates are also the leading contenders in Louisiana's primaries on October 20, the latest such contests in the country, with a runoff set for November 17, thanks to the state's old system of declaring a winner from two top candidates vying for office, regardless of party.