Meeting reporters at Democratic National Committee headquarters yesterday, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Chuck Schumer strove to tamp down expectations of optimism, casting their battle to extend their majorities as a battle against history.

Only once in recent memory has a party that benefited from a wave election gone on to win seats two years later, the two pointed out; after Democrats picked up 49 seats after Watergate, in 1974, the party netted an additional seat two years later. But after waves in pro-Democratic waves 1982 and 1992, Republicans took back a large number of seats the next time out.

This year, Van Hollen said, "We think that we are in a position to beat history." Democrats have already picked up a seat, after a special election victory in Illinois last month, but the party promises to stay on offense. "The big story we've seen in this cycle is, rather than just having to circle the wagons and play defense, we were able to put together a plan and stay very much on offense," he said.

House Democratic strategists contend they will target between 45 and 50 Republican-held seats, and combined with as many as 25 Democratic seats they will have to defend, as many as 75 seats could be seriously contested come November. That helps the party with the cash advantage, and Van Hollen, pointing to what is likely to be a four- or five-to-one cash on hand edge when reports come out later this month, said his party is "comfortably ahead" in that race.

Schumer characterized the 2008 contests as a potentially "tectonic" election, akin to the 1932 Democratic sweep and Republican gains in 1980. Those epic contests come when citizens' basic relationship to government changes, and Schumer said he believes the country is near that point.

But overconfidence is a concern, Schumer said, and Democrats can't risk getting ahead of themselves. "You don't want to get too enthusiastic at this time," he said, proceeding to rattle off states where he says his party will win big. Democratic candidates lead their Republican counterparts in five GOP-held states in DSCC polling, Schumer said, pointing to Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico and Alaska. Three other Republican Senators, Maine's Susan Collins, Oregon's Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman of Minnesota, are "within reach."

Perhaps most importantly, only one Democratic incumbent is in real trouble, Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. In five states President Bush carried in 2004 -- Iowa, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana and Arkansas -- Democratic incumbents face only nominal opposition (Arkansas Democrat Mark Pryor will not even face a Republican opponent in the fall.).

Farther down the target list, Schumer characterized Republican incumbents in North Carolina, Mississippi and Kentucky as within "striking range," and he talked up candidates less likely to win in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Idaho and Texas.

Van Hollen and Schumer rejected the notion that John McCain would play a positive role for Republican candidates, arguing that voters want fundamental change. "McCain is not going to be able to be a change candidate, given his record and his views," Schumer said. "The war in Iraq is an albatross around his neck." On their party's side, both said either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would help out their downballot candidates, "with the one caveat that we make sure that both candidates stay positive," Van Hollen warned.

And both chairmen warned of the possibility of involvement from independent organizations running issue ads on behalf of Republican candidates. Singling out one such group, Van Hollen said the assault had already begun. "Freedom's Watch, and others, have expressed now more than an interest in getting involved" in contests, he said, pointing to Ohio, where the 501(c)(4) organization ran ads slamming the Democratic candidate. Schumer pointed to ads running on behalf of Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman by a Colorado-based group, as well.

But perhaps the biggest concern the party should have is the possibility of getting ahead of itself. Democrats are being careful when playing the expectations game in the next contest, coming next month in Louisiana where State Rep. Don Cazayoux has a strong chance to defeat Republican former State Rep. Woody Jenkins in a special election. "We have a very good candidate," Van Hollen said, referring to Cazayoux. "We're clearly the underdogs in a district like that."