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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« Morning Thoughts: The Whiny Campaign | Blog Home Page | Pope Brings Up A Point »

Cazayoux Still Up In LA

Adding to Republican panic that they could lose another special election, a new poll conducted for State Rep. Don Cazayoux and reported by Roll Call's John McArdle shows the Democrat with a slightly expanded lead over Republican opponent Woody Jenkins since a similar poll conducted in mid-March.

The survey, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research, a Democratic firm based in Alabama, was conducted 4/8-10 among 500 likely special election voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.4%, and Cazayoux and Jenkins were tested.

General Election Matchup
Cazayoux 49 (nc from last, 3/08)
Jenkins 42 (-2)

The poll also shows both candidates are seen favorably by most voters in the district. Cazayoux is viewed favorably by 55% of district voters, while just 13% see him unfavorably, and Jenkins has a 56%-34% favorable to unfavorable margin.

Both parties have spent heavily in the district, including initial television ad buys of about $100,000 each last week. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continues to spend about $1,500 to $2,000 a day on field organizing, and the party has dumped an additional $30,000 into new television ads. If Democrats win the seat, it would be their second special election take-away this year, following Democrat Bill Foster's win in an Illinois congressional district last month.

Cazayoux and Jenkins will meet in the special election on May 3.