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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« FEC Reports -- Rocky Mountains | Blog Home Page | Morning Thoughts: X-Mas & D-Day »

Begich Makes It Official

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will run for Senate against long-time incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, according to a press release from his exploratory committee. While an ordinary race against a man often seen as one of three pillars of the Alaskan economy would otherwise be a suicide mission, Stevens has faced increasing heat for his role in an investigation surrounding a controversial oil services company, giving Democrat Begich a strong chance to steal a seat.

Begich, who is in his fifth year as mayor of Alaska's largest city, raised $267,000 since forming the exploratory body in late February, leaving him with $204,000 in the bank. He was national Democrats' top choice to face Stevens, and the only public poll of the race, conducted in early December, showed him leading Stevens by a six-point margin.

Stevens does not appear to be willing to roll over and play dead just yet. He raised $590,000 in the first quarter and has $1.32 million in the bank, though he has been spending quite a bit of money as well. In the last three months, Stevens spent more than $300,000 to go along with his fundraising haul. He has signaled that his argument for another term will rest on seniority, and given that he has secured millions -- perhaps billions -- for the state during his 40 years in office, it could be a powerful line of reasoning.

Experience, too, is an advantage Stevens has over Begich; the state's senior senator was first elected to the upper chamber when Begich was just six years old, in 1968.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also shown it is not taking the race lightly. They have launched several websites, including BegichBaggage.com and MarkBegichFacts.info, dumping more opposition research against the Anchorage mayor than any other Democrat they are targeting this year. Stevens, perhaps anticipating attacks from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has asked that the NRSC not advertise in such a fashion, though so far his pleas are falling on deaf ears.

The real problem is that Stevens, fellow Republican Don Young, the state's lone member of Congress, and several state legislators are all wrapped up in the investigation surrounding VECO Corp. Several of the company's top executives have pleaded guilty, as have several former members of the State House and Senate. While Stevens and Young have not been indicted or accused of wrong-doing, both have undergone intense scrutiny. Stevens' home was raided by FBI agents last year, and Young's campaign committee has paid out hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees.

While Stevens has no primary opponent yet, the Alaska Republican Party is in something of a rebuilding phase. In 2006, Sarah Palin beat incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski, a fellow Republican, easily in the primary. Now Palin's Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell, is challenging Young in the state's GOP primary, and there is no guarantee that a similar challenger won't emerge for Stevens. Unless Stevens is beaten in a primary, though, Begich has one of the best chances in the country to take a Senate seat back for Democrats.