Andrews Making Surprise NJ Bid
After hinting he wasn't happy with his state's senior senator all week, south New Jersey Rep. Rob Andrews confirmed yesterday he will challenge fellow Democrat Frank Lautenberg in a primary. With just a week to go before the filing deadline, Andrews will have to work fast to get the necessary signatures to get on the ballot, and he knows he faces an uphill fight. "I am David and he is Goliath, but I think the country is ready for some Davids," Andrews said, per the Newark Star-Ledger.
Andrews raised eyebrows earlier this week when he didn't attend Lautenberg's official announcement, and a spokesman later confirmed that he was scouting a potential bid of his own. And the issue on which Andrews hopes to draw the biggest contrast between the two led news accounts: The fact that Andrews is just 50 years old while Lautenberg is 84.
Polls have repeatedly shown that the senior senator's age could be a factor when voters head to the polls for either the June 3 primary or the November general election. Republican have had a difficult time finding a candidate, while other Democrats have hinted at, but passed on, a run themselves. At his announcement speech last week, Lautenberg was endorsed by the rest of the state's Democratic congressional delegation as well as Governor Jon Corzine and Senate colleague Bob Menendez.
But a survey conducted over the weekend suggests Andrews faces a hugely uphill battle. The survey, conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group 4/1 on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, tested Lautenberg and Andrews among likely Democratic primary voters.
Primary Election Matchup
Lautenberg 57
Andrews 22
The DSCC may have seen the primary challenge coming. In a poll conducted 3/28-30 by the Benenson Strategy Group, 61% of the 503 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed said they would vote to re-elect Lautenberg, while 28% said they might do so and just 11% said they would vote against him. Among Democratic voters, Lautenberg held favorable ratings and job approval numbers north of 70%.
The poll, DSCC spokesman Matt Miller told Politics Nation, was not in response to a threat from Andrews but focused on potential challenges from former state Democratic Party chairman Tom Byrne and others. Byrne decided earlier this week that he would not challenge Lautenberg.
Andrews has long coveted a statewide spot, and by challenging Lautenberg now may surprise potential future rivals with a win. When Corzine won the governor's mansion in 2005 and appointed Menendez to take his place in the Senate, many thought Andrews, who had also been in the running for the job, would try to take on Menendez. Instead, he held his fire, and Menendez won in November by a wide margin.
But Menendez is not Andrews' only potential rival for a top spot. Fellow Democratic Reps. Frank Pallone, Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell have also been mentioned as interested in a statewide run, and each of them have more than $1 million in the bank, according to recent FEC filings. Rep. Donald Payne is also said to be intrigued by the thought of a statewide race, and his cash on hand floats just below the magic seven-figure mark. Any primary against all or a combination of those candidates could leave Andrews at a distinct disadvantage.
Instead, he's taken his $2.4 million haul through the end of 2007 and will put it towards a two-month sprint against Lautenberg. The incumbent Democrat has just over $4.3 million in the bank, as of the last filing period, and begins with a serious leg up, but he's never been terribly popular. A survey conducted for Fairleigh Dickinson University showed just 38% of Garden State voters had a favorable impression of Lautenberg, while 22% held unfavorable views.
Running in a primary against an incumbent of the same party is rare, though it is hardly unprecedented. Six years ago, then-Rep. John Sununu beat incumbent New Hampshire Senator Bob Smith, an ultra-conservative Republican, in the Granite State's primary before narrowly beating Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen in November. And two years ago, Hawaii Rep. Ed Case came close to knocking off incumbent Senator Daniel Akaka, who survived his challenge.



