Topics
Administration
Congress
Democrats
Elections
Governor -- Alabama
Governor -- Delaware
Governor -- Indiana
Governor -- Kentucky
Governor -- Louisiana
Governor -- Missouri
Governor -- Montana
Governor -- New Hampshire
Governor -- New York
Governor -- North Carolina
Governor -- North Dakota
Governor -- Ohio
Governor -- Pennsylvania
Governor -- Rhode Island
Governor -- Texas
Governor -- Vermont
Governor -- Virginia
Governor -- Washington
House
House -- Alabama -- 02
House -- Alabama -- 05
House -- Alaska
House -- Arizona -- 01
House -- Arizona -- 03
House -- Arizona -- 05
House -- California -- 04
House -- California -- 12
House -- Colorado -- 02
House -- Colorado -- 04
House -- Connecticut -- 05
House -- Florida -- 13
House -- Florida -- 15
House -- Florida -- 24
House -- Georgia -- 12
House -- Idaho -- 01
House -- Illinois -- 03
House -- Illinois -- 10
House -- Illinois -- 11
House -- Illinois -- 14
House -- Illinois -- 18
House -- Indiana -- 07
House -- Indiana -- 09
House -- Iowa -- 03
House -- Kentucky -- 02
House -- Kentucky -- 03
House -- Louisiana -- 01
House -- Louisiana -- 06
House -- Maine -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 01
House -- Maryland -- 04
House -- Massachusetts -- 05
House -- Michigan -- 07
House -- Michigan -- 09
House -- Minnesota -- 03
House -- Minnesota -- 06
House -- Mississippi -- 01
House -- Mississippi -- 03
House -- Missouri -- 09
House -- Nevada -- 03
House -- New Hampshire -- 01
House -- New Jersey -- 03
House -- New Jersey -- 07
House -- New Mexico -- 01
House -- New Mexico -- 02
House -- New York -- 13
House -- New York -- 21
House -- New York -- 24
House -- New York -- 25
House -- New York -- 26
House -- New York -- 29
House -- North Carolina -- 03
House -- North Carolina -- 08
House -- North Carolina -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 02
House -- Ohio -- 05
House -- Ohio -- 07
House -- Ohio -- 10
House -- Ohio -- 15
House -- Ohio -- 16
House -- Oregon -- 05
House -- Pennsylvania -- 10
House -- Pennsylvania -- 11
House -- Tennessee -- 09
House -- Texas -- 07
House -- Texas -- 14
House -- Texas -- 22
House -- Virginia -- 01
House -- Virginia -- 11
House -- West Virginia -- 02
House -- Wisconsin -- 08
House -- Wyoming
International
Issues
Local Elections
Media
Miscellaneous
Morning Thoughts
Polls
Rankings
Republicans
Senate
Senate -- Alaska
Senate -- Arkansas
Senate -- Colorado
Senate -- Georgia
Senate -- Idaho
Senate -- Iowa
Senate -- Kansas
Senate -- Kentucky
Senate -- Louisiana
Senate -- Maine
Senate -- Massachusetts
Senate -- Minnesota
Senate -- Mississippi
Senate -- Montana
Senate -- Nebraska
Senate -- New Hampshire
Senate -- New Jersey
Senate -- New Mexico
Senate -- North Carolina
Senate -- Oklahoma
Senate -- Oregon
Senate -- Pennsylvania
Senate -- South Carolina
Senate -- South Dakota
Senate -- Tennessee
Senate -- Texas
Senate -- Virginia
Senate -- Wyoming
WH 08
WH 08 -- Democrats
WH 08 -- Republicans

RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

Blog Home Page --> April 2008

Tip Of Obama Iceberg?

A day after excoriating the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and trying once again to finally put a difficult hurdle behind his campaign, Barack Obama has already received three big endorsements today from prominent super delegates, giving him four in the last twenty-four hours alone.

Indiana Rep. Baron Hill, whose district in the southeast part of the state is heavily blue collar and should be prime territory for Hillary Clinton, will endorse Obama tonight, the campaign confirmed. In a long statement, Hill cited Obama's denunciation of Wright's comments, which Hill said showed "a strength of character and commitment to our nation that transcends the personal."

Hill also pointed to an earlier endorsement of Obama from former Rep. Lee Hamilton, whom Hill replaced in the House. The former vice chairman of the September 11 Commission endorsed Obama in early April.

Obama will also be endorsed by Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley, one of three Democratic members of Congress from the Hawkeye State and one who had endorsed John Edwards before his state's caucuses. Braley will describe his decision to support Obama on a conference call this afternoon, after what he described as overwhelming support for Obama at his Congressional District caucus over the weekend.

In a move that shows their confidence, the Obama campaign pointed out that Braley and Hill's endorsements bring them to 246 total super delegates -- the latest RCP Super Delegate Count has the number at 241 -- and within 286 delegates of securing the party's nomination. There are 291 uncommitted super delegates remaining.

Just a few hours later, California Democratic Rep. Lois Capps announced she too would back Obama, cutting the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination to 285.

While Hillary Clinton has picked up several super delegates in recent days -- including Pennsylvania AFL-CIO chief Bill George, who endorsed today -- Obama's roll-out the day after his condemnation of Jeremiah Wright feels like the turning point the campaign was looking for. If Obama pulls out at least one win on Tuesday, it may bring down a hail of super delegate endorsements that forces Clinton from the race. Today might be just the tip of the iceberg.

Enzi To Run For 3rd Term

Ending months of rumors about whether he would seek a new term, Wyoming Senator Mike Enzi announced over the weekend that he would indeed run for re-election. After just an eight-point win in his initial bid in 1996, Enzi won re-election easily in 2002 against an opponent who spent just $8,000. This year, he has yet to draw a credible Democratic challenger.

Enzi was not a sure bet to run, though, after Senate Republican leaders bypassed him a second time for a seat on the Senate Finance Committee. Instead of to Enzi, the ranking Republican on the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell instead John Sununu, a freshman who faces a difficult re-election bid this year.

Many saw Enzi's lackluster fundraising as a sign that he would retire instead of seek a third term. Through March, Enzi had raised $760,000, $193,000 in the First Quarter, and kept $647,000 in the bank. In truth, Enzi has never been a strong fundraiser, and he doesn't have to be in inexpensive Wyoming. He spent $953,000 on his 1996 race and $884,000 in 2002. Most of his contributions this year have come from political action committees; Enzi has raised just $79,000 from individual donors, his FEC reports show.

Wyoming lacks a deep Democratic bench, but two candidates are running against Enzi's junior colleague, Senator John Barrasso. Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal to fill the unexpired term of Craig Thomas, who passed away after a bout with cancer last year. Barrasso will run for the final four years of Thomas' term, making Wyoming and Mississippi the two states where both Senators will appear side by side on the ballot this year.

Franken Owes $70K

After building his name recognition, campaign war chest and overall credibility and all but securing the Democratic nomination for Senate in Minnesota, satirist Al Franken has stumbled in recent weeks as repeated revelations about his business dealings have made for splashy headlines. Now, Franken has paid $70,000 in back taxes and fines in 17 states where he earned money in recent years, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported today.

Franken blamed his accountant, with whom he has done business for eighteen years, of making fundamental errors that caused the oversights. Those oversights led to overpayments in Franken's two home states, Minnesota and New York, and non-payment in the more than a dozen other states where Franken earned money, usually through appearance and speaking fees. Franken maintained that, after the overpayment, he owed just $4,000 more in taxes, according to an early estimation by his new financial handlers.

The disclosure comes a month and a half after Franken's company, Alan Franken Inc., was charged a $25,000 penalty by the New York State Workers' Compensation Board for not buying workers' comp insurance, as the Star-Tribune reported in mid-March. After an internal investigation, Franken admitted the mistake and paid the fine.

Franken's candidacy was initially greeted with some skepticism from Minnesota Democrats, who wondered whether putting a comedian with a long history of raunchy jokes up against a sitting Senator was a good idea. But Franken raised a significant amount of money, outpacing -- and outspending -- Republican Norm Coleman several quarters in a row. Recent polls have shown the race close, with Coleman leading but near the margin of error.

But Franken's follies could bring a renewed sense of angst to the state's Democrat-Farmer-Labor Party, which since Coleman's election in 2002 has been itching for the opportunity to oust the Republican from office. Coleman won election after the death of incumbent Senator Paul Wellstone, whom Coleman had been trailing in polls.

While Franken retains a good chance at knocking off Coleman -- Minnesota is one of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's top targets -- he has seen his poll numbers slip in recent weeks. A rebound of some sort sooner, rather than later, is hugely important to Franken. Too, his research team, which might have caught the mistake before it was discovered by Republicans and the media, might want to go back and take a look at their candidate's record one more time to avoid future missteps.

IN: Thompson Up Big

Consider this a preview of what September and October are going to look like: As Hoosier voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, the third survey in three days is out with yet another very different picture of the state's gubernatorial primary. Just wait until Senate and House races get into the act with their own cascade of numbers down the road.

The survey, taken 4/23-24 for Howey Politics Indiana by Gauge Market Research, quizzed 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely general election voters on the governor's race, for a margin of error of +/- 4% each. Democrats Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger and Republican incumbent Mitch Daniels were surveyed.

Primary Election Matchup
Thompson 45
Schellinger 27

General Election Matchups
Daniels 55 (-1 from last, 2/08)
Thompson 36 (+3)

Daniels 56 (+2)
Schellinger 33 (+2)

The Howey-Gauge poll has, in two consecutive surveys, shown Daniels running much better against either Democrat than other polls taken in Indiana. But the wide gap in the primary, analyst Brian Howey writes, is attributable to Schellinger's failure to boost his statewide name recognition. Just 50% of voters in the Democratic primary knew of Schellinger, and just 23% knew enough to have an opinion of him. Long Thompson, on the other hand, is known by 59% of voters, which is not much better.

Compare that to the 99% of voters who knew of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the same survey and it becomes evident why Daniels, the well-funded though embattled incumbent, has a big lead in general election matchups.

While it may be a little like comparing apples and oranges, the plethora of recent surveys does give us an early opportunity to judge pollsters side by side. Keep in mind these polls out recently, from Research 2000, Selzer & Co. and Howey-Gauge, as Long Thompson and Schellinger battle toward Tuesday. We've included the polls in the chronological order of their survey dates, from earliest to latest (Selzer & Co.: 4/20-23; Research 2000: 4/21-24; Howey-Gauge: 4/23-24):

Sel R2K H-G
Thompson 26 48 45
Schellinger 28 42 27

Something to keep an eye on as the votes come in on Tuesday.

Strategy Memo: Obama's Rough Patch

Good Wednesday morning. The sprint is on with just a week of campaigning left before Indiana and North Carolina voters head to the polls. And judging by the way this week is going, the following could once again provide a new way to look at the Democratic contest. What they're watching in Washington:

-- The Senate meets today to continue consideration of the FAA reauthorization bill. The House will take up a bill to make technical corrections to major transportation legislation and a measure on special needs education. Both chambers will pause at midday for a joint address from Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern. President Bush addresses the national Teachers of the Year, then joins the Super Bowl champion New York Giants on the South Lawn before fundraising for the GOP at a private residence in Fairfax, Virginia.

-- Back on the campaign trail, the race shifted in a major way yesterday when Barack Obama offered his strongest public statements to date on controversies surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. At a news conference in North Carolina, Obama responded to Wright's recent media blitz, in which the retired pastor has traveled as much -- with stops in Dallas, Detroit, Washington and a major television news set -- as the presidential candidates, by doing his best to completely disassociate himself with Wright's comments, saying he had misjudged the man who made those statements. Wright has been in the news a lot lately, mostly of his own volition, but yesterday it was Obama who brought him up, and Obama who sought to dismiss Wright completely from the campaign trail.

-- There are pluses and minuses in Obama's very public efforts to turn the page on Jeremiah Wright, though on balance yesterday's press conference is something the campaign should have considered months ago. Obama is facing one of the roughest patches his campaign has so far seen, due in large part to his inability to overcome Wright as an issue. His poll numbers are slipping, he's reportedly not as sharp as usual on the stump, and the long campaign is getting to him. His decision to take on Wright forcefully may have been poll-driven -- at least someone is asking Wright-related questions in North Carolina, as Marc Ambinder reports -- but Obama needs something to come of this, his own version of the Sister Soulja moment. If nothing changes, Wright will continue to be an issue used against Obama for months to come.

-- Perhaps, as some have suggested, the incident is part of a larger theme that has emerged in this campaign. As Obama emerged as a contender, as much as a year ago, many African American leaders stuck with Obama rival Hillary Clinton, including such luminaries as Rep. John Lewis (who later switched to Obama after his district made their preference known), while Rep. James Clyburn stayed on the sidelines. Perhaps Obama's clash with Wright is more generational than anything else, reflecting the turning of a page in leadership in a community that has not seen a lot of turnover in recent decades. The comparisons between Obama and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who would have defeated long-time incumbent Sharpe James and beaten the Democratic machine had James not stepped down, are looking more apt by the day.

-- Obama has another problem that has gotten him in trouble in recent weeks. The candidate of hope and change isn't supposed to be running negative advertisements, and at a rally with 5,000 of his closest Tar Heel friends in Wilmington, North Carolina, Obama said he will head down a more positive path, as Bloomberg's Jensen and Leigh write. Obama took some grief for his approach to Clinton in Pennsylvania, and now that he's ahead in at least one state, he's able to stay away from hitting his rival. Clinton, meanwhile, is up with a new ad in Indiana, CNN reports, in which she lets Obama have it on freezing foreclosures and using a gas tax holiday to save consumers money. Obama's lofty image means he must be above reproach. Clinton's reputation, somewhat grittier, means she can play in the mud. In terms of doing what it takes to win, Clinton now has a lot more leeway.

-- Meanwhile, his efforts have finally paid off, at least a little bit, and John McCain is back in the news. In a major speech on health care in Tampa, Florida, McCain hewed to mostly Republican themes in offering his own solution to the health care crisis, as Business Week's Catherine Arnst writes, urging a market-driven answer in which consumers can shop around and are given tax breaks to help them afford care. That's music to the ears of free market conservatives, but it bothers those on the left, and one on the left in particular: Elizabeth Edwards, who has taken to pointing out of late that neither she, thanks to her cancer, nor McCain, thanks to his recurring bouts with melanoma, would be able to get insurance under McCain's plan, as fellow critic Jonathan Cohn writes in The New Republic. Health care policy can b difficult to distill into understandable sound bites, but McCain's first big policy proposal on the domestic front is already taking some pretty heavy shelling.

-- Clinton had a big day yesterday as well, picking up support from North Carolina Governor Mike Easley. Easley can follow one of two paths that governors who back Clinton have taken: Ted Strickland, Ohio's chief executive, was an asset among working-class Democrats, given his background as a member of Congress from a very blue collar district and his popularity among his state's Democratic base. Ed Rendell, Pennsylvania's top dog, was more of an asset on television and as a crowd-gatherer. In truth, those who voted for Rendell in his 2002 gubernatorial primary against Bob Casey were most likely to vote for Obama, while Casey voters probably cast their ballots for Clinton, making Rendell more effective explaining his state than in actually gathering votes for Clinton. Easley, some believe, is more in the Rendell model, given that he's never had an extensive grass-roots political network. But, as strategist Harrison Hickman tells the Charlotte Observer, he may boost the confidence of a few wary super delegates.

-- Veep Talk Of The Day: Governors just can't stop making vice presidential news, and don't believe what they say, they actually love it. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal showed up on Jay Leno's couch last night, recounting his childhood as the son of immigrants and his state's head honcho by the age of 36. As the New York Times points out, how could Leno resist age jokes? Jindal is just barely over half McCain's age. In an interview with the Washington Times, though, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour took himself out of the running, calling himself too conservative to be McCain's number two (Is that really the message McCain's team wanted?). And, of course, Florida Governor Charlie Crist was with McCain when he gave his speech yesterday, though he, too, professes no interest in the second slot.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama will hold a discussion with working families in Indianapolis before touring a factory with employees. He heads to Bloomington for a rally in the afternoon. Clinton is in South Bend to meet with employees of a sheet metal plant before heading to a town hall meeting in Portage and rallies in Lafayette and Kokomo. John McCain is farther east, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, where he will host a town hall meeting and speak with the press.

Dems Lose Top NV Recruit

Nevada Democratic hopes of taking back a swing seat in Congress were dealt a blow yesterday when their top recruit abruptly withdrew from the race, citing family concerns. Robert Daskas, a former top prosecutor for Clark County, pulled out of the race Monday, the Las Vegas Review-Journal's Molly Ball reports today.

The Silver State's Third District, based in Henderson and suburban Las Vegas, has been one of Democrats' top targets in recent cycles. Republican incumbent Jon Porter won re-election in 2006 with just 48% of the vote, edging out a former top aide to Senator Harry Reid by just 4,000 votes despite outspending her by a two-to-one margin. President Bush carried the fast-growing district narrowly in 2004 after losing the seat by a slim margin in 2000.

Daskas' departure was unexpected, and fundraising, cited by several once-potential candidates this year, was certainly not the problem. He raised $233,000 in the First Quarter of 2008, leaving him with $453,000 in the bank. Porter raised $366,000 in the first three months of the year and retained $1.03 million on hand, an advantage, but hardly an overwhelming one.

Democrats have a backup candidate on hand, though she will start at an even steeper fundraising disadvantage given her late entry into the race. State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, who came surprisingly close to winning the governor's mansion in 2006, said she is seriously considering the race, and that she has been in close contact with top Nevada and Washington Democrats.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was quick to add their support. "Dina Titus would be an excellent candidate with unparalleled experience and support from people in Nevada's 3rd congressional district," DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said in a statement. "Her vision, strength, and ability to get things done for Nevada would make her a powerful voice for change."

The National Republican Congressional Committee hammered Titus for her loss two years ago, when she lost to Republican Governor Jim Gibbons by four points even after Gibbons was accused of improper behavior by a cocktail waitress. "Dina Titus should think long and hard before launching a second long-shot campaign. Two losses in a row would be career-ending for her," NRCC spokeswoman Julie Shutley said in a statement this morning. Ball, though, writes that Titus beat Gibbons in the Third District by two points.

Titus has said that a decision on her entry into the race will come by the end of the week. Porter, who has survived two close contests in recent years, has to be breathing better today, though Titus will prove no easy opponent. The incumbent has worked hard to keep his seat, and he is unlikely to be caught by surprise by Titus' challenge.

Undecided Romps In IN

Perhaps Indiana voters are just too concerned with their votes in the presidential contest to make up their minds about a puny governor's race. A new poll conducted for the Indianapolis Star shows a huge plurality of Democratic primary voters remain undecided just a week before two Democrats fight for the right to take on incumbent Governor Mitch Daniels.

The survey, conducted by Des Moines-based Selzer & Company between 4/20-23, surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and 384 likely general election voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Daniels and Democrats Jim Schellinger, an architect and businessman, and Jill Long Thompson, a former member of Congress, were surveyed.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Ind)
Schellinger 28 / 28
Thompson 26 / 34

General Election Matchups
Thompson 44 (nc from last, 11/07)
Daniels 43 (nc)

Daniels 45 (+5)
Schellinger 41 (-3)

That Long Thompson leads among independents is an important boost for her campaign in a primary that is likely to see unprecedented involvement from those non-aligned voters. But with 46% of the state's voters remaining undecided, the race could hinge on name recognition and late breaks. Schellinger has been on television more than Long Thompson, but Long Thompson is a known political name, perhaps giving her the leg up on attracting those undecided voters.

Either Democrat would be in strong position to challenge Daniels in an overwhelmingly red state; despite his healthy fundraising clip and his political talent, Daniels' weak general election poll numbers have been a recurring theme this year.

The incumbent is seeing some improvement, though. 47% of voters now approve of Daniels' job performance, up seven points since November, while his disapproval rating has dropped from 50% then to 40% now. While lower than a 50% approval rating is dangerous, it's still nowhere nearly as bad as the upside down rating Daniels owned in November.

On PN Radio: Childers Out

Last week on Politics Nation Radio, Politico's Josh Kraushaar and Chris Frates dissected the Pennsylvania results with Jonathan Martin, and wondered whether the ongoing Democratic battle is really going to hurt the party come November. Former Iowa Democratic Party Communications Director Carrie Giddins also weighed in on how the Florida and Michigan delegate situations will be resolved:

In the second hour, House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd joins the crew in studio for a long look at special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, the Democratic candidate, and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, the Republican candidate in Mississippi, provide exclusive interviews to Politics Nation:

SCOTUS Allows Voter IDs

The Supreme Court yesterday upheld an Indiana law that requires voters to show photo identification before casting a ballot, a decision that could have wide-ranging implications not only on Hoosier State voters but on residents around the country as more states prepare similar laws. The six-to-three ruling allowed the Indiana law, which remains in force, to stand, drawing criticism from Democrats and civil liberties groups that maintain it will disenfranchise minority voters.

Twenty-five states have some form of voter identification law on the book, the New York Times reports, and in several states the legislature is in some stage of consideration of new measures. Identification laws have been challenged before, and largely because of a Georgia statute, Federal Election Commission nominee Hans von Spakovsky has been held up by Democrats who oppose his view on the subject.

The ruling, said some election law experts, did not validate all voter identification laws, though it did shift the burden of proof to groups who claim to be disenfranchised by such laws. "The court specifically left open the possibility of lawsuits against ID laws that burden specific groups of citizens like older voters, poor voters and students," New York University law professor Wendy Weiser told the Times.

Civil liberties organizations say the Indiana law and those similar to it can hinder minority and elderly voting, as those are the demographics least likely to have state-issued identification. Both groups tend to vote heavily Democratic, a fact not lost on either party; Republicans generally favor voter identification laws, while Democrats oppose them. In a statement, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pointed out that every Republican in the Indiana legislature voted for the measure, while every Democrat opposed it.

Congressional Democrats reacted harshly to the ruling. "The Indiana law and others like it are roadblocks to democracy - these laws place an unnecessary burden on elderly and low-income voters, not to mention other voters of disparate racial and ethnic backgrounds, among others," Reid said in the statement. "As November approaches, Americans must remain vigilant to protect the right to vote in the face of this and other schemes to depress turnout."

"The Court's decision today places obstacles to the fundamental rights of American citizens -- especially the poor, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities -- to participate in the electoral process," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in her own statement. "Requiring American citizens pay for underlying documents needed for an identification card and travel to distant motor vehicle locations for processing hinders -- and diminishes -- their right to vote."

Four opinions in the case took widely different paths to reaching their conclusions. Justices John Paul Stevens, Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts argued the state's right to prevent voter fraud superseded the burden on voters. A concurring opinion said the law was justified and mocked opposition to the measure as irrelevant; Justices Clarence Thomas and Sam Alito joined author Antonin Scalia in that opinion.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg and David Souter authored the dissenting opinion, while Justice Stephen Breyer dissented on his own.

Strategy Memo: Long, Slow Decline

Good Tuesday morning. We thought we might have spent too much time on the Rev. Jeremiah Wright yesterday morning, but after his speech at the National Press Club yesterday, we are no longer of that opinion. More Strategy Memos will be dedicated largely to Wright's effect on the campaign, we're sure. Meanwhile, here's what Washington is watching today:

-- The Senate this morning resumes consideration of the FAA reauthorization bill today, after months of delay over disputes about how to fund certain upgrades to the nation's aviation infrastructure. The House handles three measures designed to transfer land to Native American tribes in the Southwest, followed by a huge bill dealing with dozens of smaller natural resource issues, as well as relief for struggling credit unions. President Bush meets with the U.N. Special Envoy to Afghanistan at the White House today, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice meets with Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda.

-- Wright's media blitz, taking him from PBS to Dallas to Detroit to Washington over the weekend, is the talk of the town, and few understand what he's trying to do. Most agree that Wright's reemergence, especially at the Press Club yesterday, did little to help his former congregant, Barack Obama, as AP's Nedra Pickler writes today. The reemergence of a prominent leader, especially one who has not spoken to the media after such a firestorm, is big news, and voters in Indiana and North Carolina are going to get a face full of Wright, whether on the news, from blogs or from organizations seeking to divide the Democratic constituency.

-- One major concern super delegates and other influential endorsers have with the Wright issue is the simple fact that it's been going on for so long -- his controversial speeches reemerged on the national stage about two months ago now -- and yet Obama strategists have not put the story behind them. They seem to realize Wright presents them with a problem; at a tarmac news conference in Wilmington yesterday, Obama addressed his former minister in stronger language than usual: "Some of the comments that Reverend Wright has made offended me and I understand why they offend the American people," and "He does not speak for me. He does not speak for the campaign," per NYT's Jeff Zeleny. When, though, can Obama really put Wright behind him? What if, super delegates may ask, a scandal comes up in September or October that the campaign has similar trouble dealing with before November?

-- In fact, Obama has had a bad few weeks. Combining Wright with negativity toward rival Hillary Clinton, a tough loss in Pennsylvania and other missteps in the long interregnum between the Texas and Ohio primaries and April 22, the effect for the Illinois Senator has been severe and marked slippage in his national and state-by-state poll numbers. What was a ten-point lead over Clinton in the RCP National Average, just about a week ago, is now down to just under six points. After climbing all month, his lead over John McCain in the RCP General Election Average is down to just a point and a half. And Obama's leads over Clinton in North Carolina and Indiana are both down from last week. No matter the average, Obama has taken some serious lumps and it's having a dramatic effect. Clinton will take advantage by pointing to an AP/Ipsos poll, out today, that has her leading McCain by nine points, and at over 50%, while Obama stumbles ahead by just two.

-- Super delegates, though, are still moving in one obvious direction. Since the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, six super delegates have endorsed Obama, including Oregon Rep. David Wu, whose state votes by May 20, and Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry and New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, two western red state Democrats whose voices have sway inside their states. Two super delegates, meanwhile, have endorsed Clinton (that number grows to three today when North Carolina Governor Mike Easley jumps on board; more on that in a minute). Obama now leads Clinton in super delegates among his Senate colleagues, the Post's Jonathan Weisman writes, and he's on his way to leading her among all super delegates.

-- That last statement, per the Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes, comes as Clinton boasts just a 20-super delegate lead over Obama, according to the latest RCP Delegate Count. At the beginning of this calendar year, that lead was hovering near 100 super delegates. Perhaps more importantly, her lead among party elders was once a top Clinton argument for staying in a race in which she is losing the pledged delegate vote total. With pressure mounting on both candidates to end the race by June, forget the Rev. Wright; how can a candidate trailing in both kinds of delegates actually justify staying in the race if her opponent has yet to collapse?

-- Maybe the truth is that neither Democratic candidate is as strong as once thought. A Clinton victory in the primaries would still divide some parts of the party and the country; an Obama victory could spell defeat in November virtually regardless of who the GOP nominee is. An John McCain, on day two of his "Call to Action Tour" and addressing health care issues in Tampa, Florida, is in excellent position for a candidate with no money: His Republican National Committee has far outraised its Democratic counterpart, and McCain is far ahead of either Democratic candidate in terms of planning for the general election candidate. Oh, and when was the last time conservatives said anything bad about their party's standard-bearer? That "conversation" McCain promised to have with the right wing of the party seems to have worked out pretty well, and a lot faster than expected.

-- Endorsement Of The Day: In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey and Governor Ed Rendell were huge surrogates for both Democratic candidates, and so far Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has been Clinton's constant companion. But today's endorsement, from North Carolina Governor Mike Easley, could be just as important psychologically as it is politically (NBC's First Read has the background). Easley is a smart operator who has a long career in a very red state; those sorts of politicians have tended toward Obama in the past. And he's jumping on board the Clinton campaign, relieving those who might have thought the only thing they could do was to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. Side story to watch: Could John Edwards be far behind?

-- Today On The Trail: Obama has town hall meetings in Winston-Salem and Hickory, North Carolina. Clinton tours a bio-manufacturing business at North Carolina State University in Raleigh before joining Easley to accept his endorsement. Later, she tours a factory in Indianapolis, holds a town hall meeting in Hobart and a rally in Princeton, Indiana. McCain will offer a speech on health care at a cancer center at the University of South Florida. This afternoon, Bill Clinton hits four events in eastern North Carolina.

Today On POTUS '08

Tune in for a special edition of The Race tonight on XM Radio's POTUS '08 as Real Clear Politics guest hosts. Join Politics Nation from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. as we tackle the hot issues of the day in politics. Listen free here (link about half-way down the page) as:

-- Reid Wilson and guest host Kyle Trygstad dissect the race, the polls and the status of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as they battle for votes in Indiana and North Carolina. We'll hear from each of the candidates as well, with audio from today's events in both states.

-- In the second hour, we'll dive deeper into Indiana with pollster Ann Selzer, whose polls this year have nailed margins and turnout figures in Iowa and Michigan. Her new poll sheds light on the race in Indiana, which may be much more wide open than we all think.

-- And, as a special treat, an exclusive interview with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen, on his party's outlook in the 2008 Congressional elections, upcoming special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi, and much more.

All that and a few surprises, we're sure, tonight on The Race, only on XM Radio's POTUS '08. Listen live, tonight from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Eastern.

House GOP Targets Obama

In the first two advertisements of their kind, Republicans seeking an advantage in a Mississippi special election are invoking Barack Obama in arguing that a Democratic Congressional candidate is too liberal for his district. That flies in the face of what has been conventional wisdom for months among national Democratic strategists who have not publicly taken sides in the presidential contest; many privately express more hope in Obama's potential coattails than in rival Hillary Clinton's.

But while Hillary Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have made appearances in Republican advertisements before, the GOP is now taking on Obama, reflecting both a growing consensus that the Illinois Senator is the most likely candidate to emerge from the ongoing primary fight and that Republicans believe he, like Clinton, can be transformed into a lightening rod used to tarnish downballot Democrats.

The advertisements target Travis Childers, the Prentiss County Chancery Clerk who led his Republican opponent, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis, in last week's special primary election to replace Senator Roger Wicker in a northern Mississippi House seat. Both Davis and the National Republican Congressional Committee released the spots less than a week after Childers came within about 400 votes of avoiding a runoff by scoring above the 50% mark. And beyond Mississippi, NRCC chairman Tom Cole, meeting with reporters today, suggested that ties to Obama could hurt downballot Democrats nationally.

"When Obama's pastor cursed America, blaming us for 9/11, Childers said nothing," Davis' spot begins. "When Obama ridiculed rural folks for clinging to guns and religion, Childers said nothing."

While bringing up the Rev. Jeremiah Wright may be dangerous for some Republicans, the NRCC's commercial sounds a theme that will prove a more universally-sounded concept. "Travis Childers claims he's a conservative. But Travis Childers contributed money to John Kerry, and is endorsed by Barack Obama, who has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate."

That refrain, from National Journal's annual vote ranking, will be Obama's constant, and unwelcome, companion on the campaign trail. An NRCC poll showed John McCain beating Obama by about 35 points in Mississippi's First Congressional District, Cole said, and next to Pelosi, Republicans are beginning to use Obama's name as the latest image of the liberal boogeyman. And for all Obama's talk of putting more states in play, Cole doesn't believe that is necessarily the case. "Does anybody really believe Barack Obama is going to carry [Mississippi's First District]," he asked.

Saying the country remains a center-right political climate, Cole said he welcomed the debate with Obama. "The special elections are the first effort on our side to inject that intellectual dichotomy."

In both Mississippi and neighboring Louisiana, where Republican candidates in heavily red districts find themselves in tenuous positions, Cole said turning the election into a contest with national implications, much as Democrats did in 2006, can benefit his party. "Our candidates now are trying to turn those [elections] into a referendum on Pelosi, on Obama," he said. "As these elections become nationalized, I think we do better."

National Democrats criticized the ads as Hail Marys from a candidate and a party worried about losing the seat. "These are the sort of 11th hour attacks you expect from a desperate politician and National Republicans trying to distract voters from Greg Davis' horrible record of broken promises, raising property taxes 4 times and doubling spending," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Doug Thornell told Politics Nation. "The mere fact that national Republicans are being forced to spend a large chunk of their [cash on hand] to protect a ruby red district George Bush carried with over sixty percent shows how out of touch the GOP is with the American people."

Bush won the First District by twenty-five points in 2004 and by nineteen points in 2000, and Wicker, first elected in 1994, never faced a difficult re-election bid. In the Louisiana seat, Bush won by equally large margins in both his elections.

The Obama campaign declined to comment for this article, while the Clinton campaign did not return emails seeking their opinion.

Regardless of the outcomes of the two special elections, it remains remarkable that either is competitive. Both parties are spending heavily on the two seats. Through Saturday, Democrats had spent $384,000 in Mississippi and $712,000 in Louisiana, where State Rep. Don Cazayoux is vying with Republican Woody Jenkins to replace retired Rep. Richard Baker. Republicans have spent $570,000 helping Davis in Mississippi and $312,000 backing Jenkins in Louisiana. Several independent groups, including the Club for Growth and Freedom's Watch, are also spending money on behalf of GOP candidates in the districts.

At the moment, it appears that both Democratic candidates are the favorites. Childers won more votes in last Tuesday's election than Davis, and combined with the few hundred votes his Democratic opponent received -- the Democrat and Republican who placed second in the primary for the full term both tried, unsuccessfully, to have their names removed from the ballot -- Democrats received more than 50% of the ballots cast. In Louisiana, recent polls have shown Cazayoux leading Jenkins by as many as seven points, while no poll made public recently has shown Jenkins ahead. The runoff elections will be held on May 3, in Louisiana, and May 13, in Mississippi.

To turn that tide, Cole told reporters today he can use Obama to effectively nationalize both special elections. "Both Democrats were leading at the point where we began to talk about national issues," he said today. After hundreds of thousands of dollars spent trying to tie the two Democrats to the candidate who will likely be their party's standard-bearer in November, the special elections could even serve as an important turning point in the Democratic presidential contest: If both Democrats go down thanks to the association with Obama, Hillary Clinton might have another powerful argument to make to super delegates nervous about Obama's electability. If one or both Democrats win, national party strategists will not only point ecstatically to more potential signs of a Democratic wave, but will privately breathe a sign of relief that, unlike several previous nominees, Obama is not poisonous to down-ballot candidates quite yet.

How Far Does Change Extend?

Voters in Iowa's Third Congressional District gave Barack Obama a huge boost in his caucus campaign. The Illinois Senator won six of the Des Moines-based district's twelve counties, including Polk County, from which a majority of the votes came; Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, won none of the twelve counties. Obama's theme of "change," it seemed, was in the air.

But the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Leonard Boswell, had thrown his support to Clinton (The state's three Democratic members of Congress each endorsed different presidential candidates), and as has happened in other primary states, that angered at least a few members of the state Democratic Party's liberal wing. After the endorsement, former State Rep. Ed Fallon, who had finished third in the 2006 gubernatorial primary and who seemed to be building a solid base for himself, decided to give the generally more conservative Boswell a credible primary challenger.

A new poll, though, shows that Fallon has some serious work to do in advance of the state's June 3 primary. The survey, taken by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV and KCRG-TV between 4/21-23, surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the district, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Boswell and Fallon were tested.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom)
Boswell 52 / 55 / 49
Fallon 28 / 26 / 30

Boswell has a long history of surviving competitive general elections, and his district is one of the most evenly-divided in the nation. He first won election with 49%, beating out a well-funded Republican opponent in an open seat contest. Even as Democrats swept to victory nationwide last year, Boswell managed just a six-point win over State Senator Jeff Lamberti, who at the time served as the co-president in a divided upper chamber.

Whether the more liberal Fallon could hold the district in a normal year, even as moderate Boswell has faced tough races, is an open question. President Bush won a 270-vote majority in the district in 2004, while Al Gore beat him by 1,500 votes in 2000. And Fallon, unlike Boswell, is not a proven fundraiser; Boswell has raised $982,000 through the First Quarter and kept $840,000 in the bank; Fallon managed to pull in just $171,000 and spent most of it, leaving him only $19,000 in reserve.

But should Fallon pull out the upset in the primary, he would probably be the favorite heading into November. The likely GOP challenger, once a top aide to ex-Rep. Greg Ganske, jumped into the contest very late, and hadn't raised money of any significance through March. Then again, if national Republicans see the opportunity to steal a seat in central Iowa, likely to be a battleground state come November, they may pounce at the chance and make sure the Republican, Kim Schmett, is well-funded enough to become a credible challenger.

Obama's message of change may be compelling, and one Democrat -- nonprofit executive Donna Edwards, in Maryland -- has unseated an incumbent by closely mimicking Obama's style and substance. Longtime Rep. John Lewis, of Georgia, even avoided a primary challenge after switching his endorsement to Obama after initially backing Hillary Clinton. But the backlash against pro-Clinton super delegates does not appear to have reached fever pitch: At this point, though, Boswell remains a heavy favorite both in the primary and in the general election as he seeks his seventh term in Congress.

More Tight IN Polls

Just a week before the primary that will decide who has the right to face Governor Mitch Daniels in November, a new poll conducted for several media outlets in Indiana shows both Democrats running neck and neck with the incumbent Republican. Most polls in the state have shown a similarly close race, though at least a few have shown Daniels with wide leads.

The survey, conducted by Research 2000 for WSBT-TV, WISH-TV, WANE-TV and the South Bend Tribune, quizzed 600 likely voters between 4/21-24, for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Daniels, ex-Rep. Jill Long Thompson and architect Jim Schellinger were surveyed. The sample was 42% Republican, 35% Democratic and 23% represented independents and minor parties.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind / Men / Wom)
Daniels 45 / 7 / 79 / 40 / 50 / 40 (-1 from last, 9/07)
Thompson 45 / 86 / 7 / 52 / 42 / 48 (+7)

Daniels 45 / 7 / 79 / 40 / 50 / 40 (no trend)
Schellinger 44 / 84 / 7 / 51 / 42 / 46

Research 2000 also conducted a poll of the Democratic primary, between 4/23-24. 400 likely Democratic primary voters were asked their thoughts on the race between Long Thompson and Schellinger, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Primary Election Matchup
(All / Men / Wom / Wht / Blk)
Thompson 48 / 41 / 54 / 48 / 51
Schellinger 42 / 52 / 34 / 43 / 35

African Americans made up only 13% of the Democratic primary sample, about what is expected in a normal Democratic primary (the state is just 8.3% African American, according to the Census Bureau). But if African Americans heavily favor Long Thompson, Schellinger has a bigger problem on hand. With the presidential contest that same day, as well as a tight Congressional primary in the heavily-African American Seventh District, in Indianapolis, African American turnout could be huge, as it has been in other states.

In the Seventh District, Rep. Andre Carson was elected in March to fill in for his late grandmother, but he faces a difficult fight for his party's nomination to a full term in November. Carson will face a number of well-financed challengers, two of whom are also black, probably further increasing turnout. Long Thompson and Schellinger are both white.

Whichever Democrat takes on Daniels in the Fall is going to have an opportunity and a huge hurdle. To keep an incumbent under the 50% mark for so long is impressive, and it speaks to Daniels' unpopularity. The poll showed just 42% of Hoosiers said they had excellent or good opinions of Daniels' work as governor, while 49% said their thoughts about the incumbent were fair or poor.

Voters also said taxes and state spending were a big issue, with 36% naming it as the number one issue determining their vote. That's generally bad for incumbents, and especially in Indiana; Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, a Democrat, was stunned to lose to a Republican neophyte opponent in 2007 after property taxes became a campaign issue.

But Daniels has another advantage in the form of his bank account. Schellinger has raised much more money than Long Thompson -- about $2.3 million to about $907,000, according to financial disclosure reports through the end of March. Both are spending a lot of money on the primary; Schellinger had $715,000 left on hand, whil