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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« ME Field Set | Blog Home Page | EMILY's List Hits Primaries »

The Beer-Wine Divide

Still nursing a post-St. Patrick's Day hangover? Depending on your choice of tipple, you may be more predisposed toward voting a certain way, a new poll finds. It seems self-explanatory: Chug a beer and you probably favor John McCain. Sip a fine merlot and you're probably going to cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But it's always fun when someone actually surveys the country.

The poll, taken 3/14-16, surveyed 1,019 adults about their choice of beverage and their choice of candidate. Opinion Research Corporation conducted the poll on behalf of CNN, with McCain, Obama and Clinton tested. 28% of respondents said they prefer beer to wine, while 31% prefer smashed grapes to malted hops. An astonishing (and hardly believable) 41% said they never drink. Among the subsamples of wine and beer drinkers, the margins of error are +/- 6.5%. Among the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3%.

General Election Matchups
(All / Beer / Wine)
Obama 47 / 48 / 53 (-5 from last, 2/1-3)
McCain 46 / 50 / 42 (+2)

Clinton 49 / 46 / 54 (-1)
McCain 47 / 53 / 42 (nc)

What can we learn from wine and beer drinkers? The most obvious conclusion is that those who don't drink are more likely to oppose a Democrat, as is most evident in Obama's numbers: He polls better than the sample as a whole among guzzlers of both beverages, meaning his numbers among non-drinkers must be considerably smaller.

One might assume that wine drinkers are more likely to be women while beer consumers are probably men, hence Clinton's larger "tipple gap" and McCain's strong performance among hops lovers. But we can only speculate, as those cross-tabs aren't readily available.

We initially wondered why those who prefer shots of Jagermeister weren't surveyed, but then we recalled that those people are most likely to be campaign staffers and journalists, and those types tend to be the first ones kicked out of a polling sample.