Embattled Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt could be in better shape this year than she has been in previous contests as she seeks a second full term representing southern Ohio, a new poll shows. In the last three years, Schmidt has narrowly won three separate elections to serve a term and a half in Congress, where she's been a reliable conservative and a lightening rod for controversy.

The new poll, conducted for Schmidt's campaign by The Tarrance Group, was conducted 3/11-12 among 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Schmidt and Democrat Victoria Wulsin, a physician who ran in 2006, were tested.

General Election Matchup
Schmidt 51
Wulsin 33

If Schmidt's lead holds, it would be her widest margin of victory to date. She won an August 2005 special election over Democrat Paul Hackett by just four points -- a race seen as an early harbinger of Democrats' successes in 2006 -- and won renomination by five points the following year, though with less than 50% of the vote. Schmidt beat Wulsin by a single point despite outspending the Democrat two-to-one.

The culturally conservative district, which runs from the eastern Cincinnati suburbs through parts of seven counties along Ohio's southern border, should not yield such close contests. President Bush won the district by nearly thirty points in two successive elections, and the previous incumbent, former U.S. Trade Representative and Office of Management and Budget head Rob Portman, never had a difficult re-election race.

But Schmidt seems to attract controversy: On the House floor, she implied Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha, a decorated Marine, was a coward, a line that Wulsin used in a campaign advertisement. Later, questions about the number of marathons Schmidt claimed to have run emerged as well.

Schmidt and Wulsin, who each faced two other candidates in their respective primaries, won their March 4 contests with 57% each.