Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen is back atop a Republican-leaning poll in her rematch against GOP Senator John Sununu, three months after the same survey showed Sununu leading by a healthy margin. The survey once again reasserts Shaheen as a top Democratic takeover opportunity.

The poll, taken by American Research Group, a Republican-leaning firm that has done work for former GOP congressmen in the state, was conducted 3/14-17 among 541 registered voters. 30% of the sample was made up of Republicans, 29% of Democrats and the remaining 41% of undeclared voters. Shaheen and Sununu were tested.

General Election Matchup
(All / Dem / GOP / Ind)
Shaheen 47 / 76 / 1 / 61 (+6 from last, 12/07)
Sununu 33 / 12 / 81 / 13 (-19)

The poll is a dramatic departure from December, when Sununu led by eleven points, a survey that was at odds with every other poll out at the time. Most have suspected that Shaheen leads by a wide margin, as another well-respected polling institution showed in February. Nothing in particular has happened in the last three months that would have robbed Sununu of so much support, making the December poll seem like an outlier.

Shaheen raised money at a very fast clip in the fourth quarter, finishing the year with $1.1 million, though she still trailed Sununu's $3.4 million in the bank. National Democrats are sure to play heavily in New Hampshire, which will also be a crucial presidential battleground state. And Shaheen faces a simply better landscape: After veering to the right in 2002, no state has experienced an anti-Republican backlash quite like New Hampshire. Just ask the Republican governor, two Republican members of Congress and eighty-something state legislators who are no longer in office thanks to the 2006 Democratic wave.

Added to Virginia and New Mexico, where Democrats are strongly favored to take over GOP-held seats, Shaheen's chances in New Hampshire start to paint a picture of a large Democratic majority after November. Still, the party seems likely to come up short of the magic number 60, unless they can find a way to win every competitive state and miraculously pull out upsets in places like Oklahoma and Mississippi. The Democratic Party looks in good shape this year, especially in New Hampshire, but wins in those two states seem a stretch, to say the least.