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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson

« Dems Win Hastert Seat | Blog Home Page | Parties Get Top LA Picks »

Morning Thougths: Of Mitt And Montana

Good Monday morning. It's March 10, which means you have to wait just 43 days to find out what's going to happen in Pennsylvania. You'll be forgiven if you get too excited to sleep tonight. Here's what Washington is watching, with baited breath:

-- The Senate is in session debating the budget resolution but will hold no votes today, while the House operates under suspension to deal with several minor bills. President Bush meets Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the White House to discuss allowing U.S. missile defense equipment to be located on Polish soil.

-- Back to Pennsylvania for a moment. Hillary Clinton stops in the state today, and with seven weeks plus one day before Keystoners vote, we're going to know as much about the state as we did about Iowa. Seven weeks and a day before Iowa, on November 14, Mike Huckabee had just started to break toward the front of the pack on the Republican side, and Democrats were waking up to the realization that this Barack Obama guy was for real, just three days after his speech at the Iowa Democrats' Jefferson Jackson Dinner. So, pay attention to geography. It's going to become important.

-- The Florida-Michigan fiasco is rapidly approaching something resembling a conclusion, something that happened fast over the weekend. Several top officials behind the two states' bids to get their delegates seated, Senators Carl Levin and Bill Nelson included, are backing the idea of a mail-in re-vote, one that would be held within the allowed primary window. Such an election would be significantly less expensive than a primary or a caucus, and top surrogates on both Clinton's and Obama's teams did not shoot down the idea yesterday. The only way any agreement could be derailed, DNC chief Howard Dean says, is if one side believes it's being treated unfairly.

-- Democrats who served on the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee spent months with the threat that certain states would jump the gun and hold their primaries before February 5. Next cycle, they promised, they would deal with complaints that Iowa and New Hampshire always get to go first. Next cycle, is any state really going to risk being left out in the cold, without delegates, after this election? Now rule-makers in the DNC will probably have to do something about super delegates, though what is entirely up in the air.

-- The two sides still seem to be battling not only for their party's nomination, but for control of a landscape that looks better for Democrats than any since Lyndon Johnson won the presidency in 1964. On Saturday, that landscape only got better when neophyte politician Bill Foster, a physicist, businessman and long-shot Democratic nominee, won former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in suburban Chicago, as we wrote yesterday. The blow to Republicans is serious, and the election will probably cost them millions in donations and an immeasurable amount of lost morale. How Republican is the seat? President Bush won it by 11 and 12 points in his two bids, and Hastert never received any margin lower than 64%, Politico writes.

-- Meanwhile, in an effort to gain a leg up, Clinton's comments about a unity ticket are getting more frequent. "You've gotta make a choice. A lot of people wish they didn't have to. I've got people saying, 'I wish I could vote for both of you,'" Clinton told a crowd in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, per CBS's Fernando Suarez. "Well, that might be possible someday, but first I need your vote on Tuesday," she concluded. Husband Bill Clinton called a joint ticked "almost unstoppable," as CNN's Rebecca Sinderbrand wrote on Saturday. Obama's less enthusiastic about the idea: "You won't see me as a vice presidential candidate, you know," he told a Billings, Montana television station.

-- The goal of the new Clinton suggestion: To give super delegates and regular voters an excuse to vote for Clinton. Want change but think experience is at least a little bit important? Put up with Clinton for eight years as Obama gets ready to assume the top job, then elect him. Rumors abound that Clinton would accept the number two slot, though her doing so would probably hurt Obama more than it would help heal the rift in the Democratic Party.

-- On the GOP side, as John McCain rebuilds his depleted coffers, he's also considering his vice presidential selection. That is, as he told a press conference in Phoenix a week ago, he is considering how to pick his vice presidential nominee. The pesky task of actually choosing someone waits farther down the road, but Jonathan Martin notes a new name, floated by two seriously plugged-in conservatives as a favorite: Mitt Romney. Romney popped up in articles from Bob Novak and Fred Barnes in the last week, and it's been suggested that the Bush clan favors that particular choice.

-- Overlooked Contest Of The Day: "Mississippi relishes chance to play part in nomination," reads the USA Today header. But the state has been overlooked by both Democratic candidates. Obama's there today, and Clinton was there last week, but both candidates took the entire weekend off, Clinton in Washington and Obama in Illinois. While, as noted about, Obama has already started paying attention to Montana media ahead of the state's June 3 primary, Mississippi, which has 33 delegates up for grabs tomorrow, is getting far less attention than it probably merits.

-- Today On The Trail: Obama has town hall meetings planned for Columbus and Jackson, Mississippi, while Clinton stumps in Scranton, Pennsylvania. After a weekend at his Sedona ranch with big donors, John McCain stops in Phoenix for a press availability followed by an event in St. Louis this afternoon.