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RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

By Reid Wilson (AIM: PoliticsNation)

« PA Primary Bad For GOP | Blog Home Page | GOP Loses 2 NY Recruits »

Morning Thoughts: Whack A Knee

Good Wednesday morning, unless you're a fan of the Syracuse Orangemen. Jim Boeheim's team, which has been so good to Politics Nation over the years in NCAA tournaments, got bounced from the NIT last night by UMass, as the number-two seed upset the number-one to move on. There's always next year. Here's what Washington is watching this morning:

-- The House and Senate remain on Spring recess, though the House Foreign Affairs Committee today will meet in Boston to discuss prisoner treatment at Guantanamo Bay. President Bush attends military briefings at the Pentagon while Condoleezza Rice meets with South Korean Foreign Affairs Minister Yu Myung-hwan and Vice President Cheney continues his travel to the Middle East. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez drew the short straw and is spending his second day in Fairbanks, Alaska (High today: 17 degrees) where he will meet with university students.

-- Yesterday played out much like Monday did: Barack Obama hung out with his family and the two remaining candidates each got slammed by the media. The Democratic race feels like it's coming to an end faster than the Clinton camp wants it to, but they're not about to sit back and take it. Instead, Clinton spent yesterday telling the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright would not have been her pastor, nicely changing the headline on a day when she also had to backpedal from comments about a mid-90's visit to Bosnia, a misstatement she blamed on sleep deprivation, despite the fact that it was in her prepared remarks (when does the research department chief get canned?). Obama's spokesman hit back hard, and many have questioned Clinton's wisdom in taking up the issue herself, instead of handing it to surrogates.

-- In the interview, Clinton also called for revotes in Florida and Michigan ("I don't understand what (Obama) is afraid of, or why he has taken this hard-line stand against Michigan re-voting and Florida re-voting.") and said she might be open to the possibility of a super delegate primary ("The governor from Tennessee (Phil Bredesen) suggested that there be a convention of superdelegates, and I think that it is an intriguing idea. I have not considered it long enough to have an opinion on it."), though it's unclear how much that would actually benefit her. Any chance Clinton gets, she's going directly after Obama, and not in a nice way.

-- It's all part of a strategy one top Democratic official called the "Tonya Harding option," per ABC News' Jake Tapper, by which Clinton's only chance of winning the nomination is by making Barack Obama completely unacceptable in the eyes of party elders and super delegates who remain unpledged. Short of busting Obama's kneecaps, Clinton is a decided underdog to head up the party in November. As Tapper smartly points out, the end result was not handing the gold to Harding, but to eastern rival Oksana Baiul, presumably played here by John McCain (though we doubt his triple lutz abilities).

-- Where will the kneecapping take place? While we initially felt bad for Pennsylvania, which got about three minutes in the spotlight before the Obama campaign signaled it would be working harder on North Carolina and Indiana, the Keystone State seems to be making a comeback, as Ben Smith notes two big groups getting involved: SEIU, the powerful, politically knowledgeable union that backs Obama, will focus on member contacts instead of television ads, but their 75,000 members could make up nearly 5% of turnout come April 22, making them a key voting bloc. EMILY's List, stumping for Clinton, will contact 150,000 women, its officials told a Philadelphia newspaper.

-- Meanwhile, the state's importance and influence will increase more as Obama, tanned, rested and ready, hits the stump for a six-day bus tour, reminiscent of candidates traveling along Iowa highways in the Fall, from the west side of the state to the east side. Clinton, looking ahead to contests involving Hoosiers and Tar Heels, still has four weeks to go before she can claim a real win in Pennsylvania, plenty of time for Obama to catch up.

-- For Democrats worried about a wounded figure skater as their nominee (though we hear Obama prefers basketball) two arguments out today on why the elongated primary is actually a good thing: First, from the Washington Post's Dan Balz, points to hugely increased registration statistics, giving Democrats better voter lists heading into November in some of the swing states and districts that could provide the party with a bigger Congressional majority in 2009 (similar to a case we made yesterday relating to the Philadelphia suburbs).

-- The second reason Democrats shouldn't be depressed: If Obama is going to be a skilled nominee, he needs a few bad weeks, and he needs to learn how to get over them if he's going to be anywhere near as tough as he needs to be to beat John McCain. Without experience overcoming a bad round of stories, what's to stop Obama from being swift boated from here to eternity? A top adviser to Clinton told Marc Ambinder that the two rivals trading barbs is actually a good thing for Obama, and the adviser's side has no plans to let up: "So now Obama expects to win the nomination without toughening up and lasting all fifteen rounds?" the adviser asked. Ambinder is skeptical, but in a way, it does make sense.

-- Still in sunny California, meanwhile, McCain made his deepest remarks yet on the economy, NBC's Aiger-Treworgy writes, scolding proposals to bail out those McCain characterized as acting irresponsibly. Asked whether he would consider Clinton's plan to offer assistance to homeowners, McCain said he thought the idea was too expensive and wondered how it would be paid for. But all is not well for the Republican senator: His record on tobacco will soon come under fire, the Boston Globe writes, and McCain will have to vote on a bill he cosponsored with Ted Kennedy that would allow the FDA to regulate tobacco, a bill he has yet to say whether he will support or oppose. I cosponsored it before I voted against it?

-- Sign Of The Apocalypse Of The Day: (With apologies to Sports Illustrated) What do USA Today, the Boston Globe, the Dallas Morning News, the Miami Herald and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution have in common? They're not sending reporters along to cover the campaign trail. In fact, only the networks, the wires, the Washington Post and New York Times (and usually the Wall Street Journal) are on board campaign planes and buses with the candidates. That's just what happens when newspapers are cutting down on costs and a day with a candidate can run a news organization upwards of $2,000 a day, as the New York Times writes today, along with a killer photo of Time's Halperin freezing his rear end off.

-- Today On The Trail: Clinton attends a rally at Constitution Hall here in Washington, a stone's throw from the White House, before beginning a big swing through North Carolina. Obama, back on the trail after vacation, will hold a town hall meeting in Greensboro, North Carolina. McCain offers a major foreign policy address to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council.